Saturday, November 23, 2013

Playoff Implications - Week 12

Here is your weekly cheat sheet for NFL games with playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a big impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

Ranking Week 12 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 12 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

GameLeverage
CAR @ MIA 37.5%
NYJ @ BAL 26.9%
DAL @ NYG 26.6%
SF @ WAS 25.7%
CHI @ STL 25.0%
IND @ ARZ 21.0%
TB @ DET 19.9%
MIN @ GB 15.9%
PIT @ CLE 15.1%
TEN @ RAI 10.3%
SD @ KC 5.1%
NO @ ATL 2.9%
DEN @ NE 1.7%
JAC @ TEX 0.8%

The top game this week, by a good margin, is Carolina-Miami.

Beyond Week 12

I can also use my simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 13-17 games by total leverage.

WeekGameLeverage
17 PHI @ DAL 49.3%
13 GB @ DET 48.4%
16 CHI @ PHI 44.4%
14 DET @ PHI 44.0%
13 ARZ @ PHI 43.2%
14 DAL @ CHI 41.2%
15 GB @ DAL 38.5%
17 GB @ CHI 37.8%
15 BAL @ DET 37.5%
17 SF @ ARZ 37.3%

Nine of the top ten games feature matches involving either the NFC North or NFC East.

Week 12 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 12. You can filter by game or team below. As mentioned above, I have already weeded out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game: <-or-> Select Team:

home team:
gamegame probteamplayoff probloseswinsswingleverage
DAL @ NYG 58.6% DAL 45.3% 61.4% 33.9% -27.5% 13.5%
NYJ @ BAL 62.7% NYJ 24.6% 42.0% 14.3% -27.8% 13.4%
SF @ WAS 29.5% SF 68.6% 77.2% 48.0% -29.2% 13.3%
CHI @ STL 53.6% CHI 33.2% 46.5% 21.7% -24.8% 12.4%
CAR @ MIA 34.5% MIA 28.3% 20.0% 44.0% 24.0% 11.4%
TB @ DET 78.7% DET 53.3% 32.9% 58.9% 26.0% 10.6%
NYJ @ BAL 62.7% BAL 16.2% 3.0% 24.1% 21.1% 10.2%
IND @ ARZ 58.8% ARZ 23.6% 11.9% 31.8% 19.9% 9.8%
MIN @ GB 65.8% GB 27.7% 16.0% 33.8% 17.8% 8.5%
PIT @ CLE 57.1% PIT 11.6% 20.4% 4.9% -15.5% 7.7%
CAR @ MIA 34.5% CAR 88.8% 94.3% 78.2% -16.1% 7.6%
DAL @ NYG 58.6% PHI 54.4% 46.6% 60.0% 13.4% 6.6%
TEN @ RAI 46.1% TEN 9.0% 14.2% 2.8% -11.3% 5.7%
IND @ ARZ 58.8% SF 68.6% 75.3% 63.9% -11.3% 5.6%
TB @ DET 78.7% CHI 33.2% 43.6% 30.4% -13.3% 5.4%
PIT @ CLE 57.1% CLE 8.3% 2.4% 12.7% 10.2% 5.1%
DAL @ NYG 58.6% NYG 6.1% 0.3% 10.1% 9.8% 4.8%
SF @ WAS 29.5% ARZ 23.6% 20.5% 31.0% 10.5% 4.8%
CHI @ STL 53.6% DET 53.3% 48.4% 57.6% 9.2% 4.6%
MIN @ GB 65.8% DET 53.3% 59.2% 50.3% -9.0% 4.3%
SD @ KC 66.0% SD 4.9% 10.4% 2.0% -8.4% 4.0%
CHI @ STL 53.6% GB 27.7% 23.6% 31.2% 7.6% 3.8%
CAR @ MIA 34.5% NYJ 24.6% 26.6% 20.9% -5.7% 2.7%
CAR @ MIA 34.5% ARZ 23.6% 21.8% 27.1% 5.3% 2.5%
SF @ WAS 29.5% CHI 33.2% 31.7% 36.8% 5.1% 2.3%
TB @ DET 78.7% GB 27.7% 32.1% 26.5% -5.6% 2.3%
IND @ ARZ 58.8% CAR 88.8% 91.5% 86.8% -4.6% 2.3%
MIN @ GB 65.8% CHI 33.2% 36.1% 31.7% -4.4% 2.1%
TEN @ RAI 46.1% RAI 2.3% 0.5% 4.5% 4.0% 2.0%
CHI @ STL 53.6% SF 68.6% 66.6% 70.3% 3.7% 1.8%
NO @ ATL 22.9% NO 98.5% 99.5% 95.2% -4.3% 1.8%
CAR @ MIA 34.5% CHI 33.2% 32.0% 35.6% 3.6% 1.7%
CAR @ MIA 34.5% SF 68.6% 67.4% 70.9% 3.5% 1.7%
CAR @ MIA 34.5% BAL 16.2% 17.4% 14.0% -3.4% 1.6%
SF @ WAS 29.5% CAR 88.8% 87.7% 91.2% 3.5% 1.6%
CAR @ MIA 34.5% CLE 8.3% 9.3% 6.2% -3.1% 1.5%
TB @ DET 78.7% SF 68.6% 71.4% 67.8% -3.6% 1.5%
SF @ WAS 29.5% GB 27.7% 26.8% 29.9% 3.1% 1.4%
CAR @ MIA 34.5% SD 4.9% 5.9% 3.0% -2.9% 1.4%
IND @ ARZ 58.8% DET 53.3% 54.9% 52.2% -2.7% 1.3%
PIT @ CLE 57.1% MIA 28.3% 26.8% 29.4% 2.7% 1.3%
CAR @ MIA 34.5% TEN 9.0% 9.9% 7.2% -2.7% 1.3%
SF @ WAS 29.5% DET 53.3% 52.5% 55.3% 2.8% 1.3%
CAR @ MIA 34.5% PHI 54.4% 53.6% 56.1% 2.5% 1.2%
CHI @ STL 53.6% CAR 88.8% 87.5% 89.8% 2.4% 1.2%
NYJ @ BAL 62.7% MIA 28.3% 26.9% 29.1% 2.3% 1.1%
NYJ @ BAL 62.7% DET 53.3% 51.9% 54.1% 2.2% 1.1%
CAR @ MIA 34.5% PIT 11.6% 12.3% 10.1% -2.2% 1.0%
NO @ ATL 22.9% PHI 54.4% 53.9% 56.3% 2.4% 1.0%
MIN @ GB 65.8% CAR 88.8% 90.1% 88.0% -2.1% 1.0%
IND @ ARZ 58.8% GB 27.7% 26.6% 28.5% 1.9% 1.0%
DAL @ NYG 58.6% SF 68.6% 67.5% 69.4% 1.9% 0.9%
TEN @ RAI 46.1% PIT 11.6% 10.7% 12.5% 1.8% 0.9%
DEN @ NE 41.2% NE 98.6% 97.8% 99.6% 1.8% 0.9%
TEN @ RAI 46.1% NYJ 24.6% 23.8% 25.6% 1.8% 0.9%
DEN @ NE 41.2% ARZ 23.6% 22.9% 24.7% 1.8% 0.9%
CAR @ MIA 34.5% BUF 2.5% 3.0% 1.4% -1.6% 0.8%
DAL @ NYG 58.6% CAR 88.8% 87.9% 89.4% 1.5% 0.8%
SD @ KC 66.0% PIT 11.6% 10.5% 12.1% 1.6% 0.7%
JAC @ TEX 80.7% CAR 88.8% 87.4% 89.1% 1.6% 0.6%
NYJ @ BAL 62.7% BUF 2.5% 1.7% 2.9% 1.3% 0.6%
SF @ WAS 29.5% NYG 6.1% 5.7% 7.0% 1.4% 0.6%
TEN @ RAI 46.1% SD 4.9% 4.4% 5.5% 1.1% 0.6%
PIT @ CLE 57.1% CIN 94.3% 93.7% 94.8% 1.1% 0.5%
CAR @ MIA 34.5% CIN 94.3% 94.7% 93.6% -1.1% 0.5%
CHI @ STL 53.6% CIN 94.3% 93.8% 94.8% 1.0% 0.5%
CAR @ MIA 34.5% NE 98.6% 98.9% 97.9% -1.0% 0.5%
PIT @ CLE 57.1% SD 4.9% 4.3% 5.3% 1.0% 0.5%
NYJ @ BAL 62.7% NE 98.6% 98.0% 98.9% 0.9% 0.5%
IND @ ARZ 58.8% IND 99.5% 99.9% 99.1% -0.8% 0.4%
SF @ WAS 29.5% WAS 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.4%
CHI @ STL 53.6% RAI 2.3% 2.7% 2.0% -0.8% 0.4%
SD @ KC 66.0% BUF 2.5% 2.0% 2.7% 0.7% 0.3%
IND @ ARZ 58.8% RAI 2.3% 1.9% 2.6% 0.7% 0.3%
TEN @ RAI 46.1% IND 99.5% 99.2% 99.8% 0.6% 0.3%
CHI @ STL 53.6% NO 98.5% 98.2% 98.8% 0.6% 0.3%
IND @ ARZ 58.8% NO 98.5% 98.8% 98.3% -0.6% 0.3%
MIN @ GB 65.8% IND 99.5% 99.2% 99.6% 0.4% 0.2%
CHI @ STL 53.6% STL 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
TB @ DET 78.7% STL 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% -0.3% 0.1%
NO @ ATL 22.9% STL 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%
JAC @ TEX 80.7% STL 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% -0.3% 0.1%

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