Playoff Implications - Week 11

Here is your weekly cheat sheet for NFL games with playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a big impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background). I can summarize the total impact a game is expected to have, as well as how it affects each particular team.

The main change from last week is that I am now filtering out results that aren't statistically significant. I am using the Fisher Exact Test for this purpose, with a significance level of 95%.

Ranking Week 11 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 11 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Game	Leverage
BAL @ CHI	32.7%
WAS @ PHI	26.0%
SD @ MIA	25.8%
CLE @ CIN	25.6%
NYJ @ BUF	22.3%
GB @ NYG	20.5%
NE @ CAR	20.0%
DET @ PIT	19.1%
SF @ NO	12.2%
ARZ @ JAC	10.9%
RAI @ TEX	3.0%
ATL @ TB	2.0%
MIN @ SEA	0.2%
KC @ DEN	0.1%

The top game this week is Baltimore-Chicago, which has implications for two tight divisional races as well as each conference's wild card slots. Note that the lowest leverage game is Kansas City @ Denver. While this game has huge implications for seeding, it has very little impact on which teams make the playoffs (the Chiefs and Broncos are locks for the playoffs, regardless of the outcome of their Sunday Night matchup).

Beyond Week 11

I can also use my simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 12-17 games by total leverage. Think of this as a cheat sheet for whoever at NBC is in charge of flex scheduling.

Week	Game	Leverage
17	PHI @ DAL	46.6%
13	GB @ DET	37.6%
16	CHI @ PHI	37.0%
15	GB @ DAL	36.9%
14	DET @ PHI	36.0%
12	CAR @ MIA	35.0%
15	NYJ @ CAR	34.6%
14	DAL @ CHI	34.1%
13	ARZ @ PHI	33.4%
12	NYJ @ BAL	32.3%

Once again, the top games are dominated by NFC East and NFC North matchups.

Week 11 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 10. You can filter by game or team below. As mentioned above, I have already weeded out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game:

NYJ@BUF NE@CAR BAL@CHI CLE@CIN KC@DEN ARZ@JAC SD@MIA SF@NO GB@NYG WAS@PHI DET@PIT MIN@SEA ATL@TB IND@TEN RAI@TEX

<-or->

Select Team:

ARZ ATL BAL BUF CAR CHI CIN CLE DAL DEN DET GB IND JAC KC MIA MIN NE NO NYG NYJ PHI PIT RAI SD SEA SF STL TB TEN TEX WAS

				home team:
game	game prob	team	playoff prob	loses	wins	swing	leverage
WAS @ PHI	62.1%	PHI	42.3%	24.4%	53.2%	28.8%	14.0%
CLE @ CIN	69.5%	CLE	17.8%	37.2%	9.3%	-27.9%	12.9%
SD @ MIA	44.8%	SD	17.7%	28.1%	4.8%	-23.3%	11.6%
SD @ MIA	44.8%	MIA	17.4%	7.3%	29.8%	22.4%	11.1%
CLE @ CIN	69.5%	CIN	84.3%	67.7%	91.6%	23.8%	11.0%
NYJ @ BUF	54.8%	NYJ	29.6%	41.7%	19.6%	-22.1%	11.0%
BAL @ CHI	61.0%	BAL	21.9%	34.6%	13.8%	-20.8%	10.1%
NE @ CAR	58.0%	CAR	77.8%	66.8%	85.8%	19.0%	9.4%
GB @ NYG	69.4%	GB	21.6%	34.5%	15.9%	-18.6%	8.6%
SF @ NO	61.3%	SF	84.2%	93.9%	78.0%	-15.9%	7.7%
DET @ PIT	42.7%	DET	80.7%	86.9%	72.2%	-14.7%	7.3%
WAS @ PHI	62.1%	DAL	56.2%	65.4%	50.6%	-14.8%	7.2%
BAL @ CHI	61.0%	CHI	18.0%	9.3%	23.5%	14.1%	6.9%
ARZ @ JAC	28.3%	ARZ	15.0%	18.6%	6.1%	-12.5%	5.6%
DET @ PIT	42.7%	PIT	5.5%	2.4%	9.6%	7.2%	3.5%
DET @ PIT	42.7%	CHI	18.0%	15.3%	21.5%	6.3%	3.1%
GB @ NYG	69.4%	DET	80.7%	76.2%	82.6%	6.4%	3.0%
SF @ NO	61.3%	NO	96.4%	92.8%	98.7%	5.9%	2.9%
DET @ PIT	42.7%	GB	21.6%	19.3%	24.7%	5.4%	2.7%
WAS @ PHI	62.1%	WAS	2.4%	5.7%	0.4%	-5.3%	2.6%
GB @ NYG	69.4%	NYG	5.4%	1.6%	7.1%	5.6%	2.6%
NE @ CAR	58.0%	ARZ	15.0%	18.0%	12.8%	-5.2%	2.6%
NYJ @ BUF	54.8%	MIA	17.4%	14.6%	19.7%	5.0%	2.5%
BAL @ CHI	61.0%	MIA	17.4%	14.3%	19.4%	5.0%	2.5%
NE @ CAR	58.0%	CHI	18.0%	20.7%	16.0%	-4.7%	2.3%
ARZ @ JAC	28.3%	CAR	77.8%	76.4%	81.4%	5.0%	2.3%
WAS @ PHI	62.1%	NYG	5.4%	8.1%	3.8%	-4.3%	2.1%
BAL @ CHI	61.0%	DET	80.7%	83.2%	79.0%	-4.1%	2.0%
NYJ @ BUF	54.8%	SD	17.7%	15.5%	19.5%	4.0%	2.0%
ARZ @ JAC	28.3%	SF	84.2%	82.9%	87.3%	4.4%	2.0%
NYJ @ BUF	54.8%	BAL	21.9%	19.8%	23.7%	3.9%	1.9%
GB @ NYG	69.4%	PHI	42.3%	45.1%	41.1%	-4.0%	1.8%
SD @ MIA	44.8%	NYJ	29.6%	28.0%	31.6%	3.6%	1.8%
BAL @ CHI	61.0%	SD	17.7%	15.5%	19.1%	3.6%	1.7%
BAL @ CHI	61.0%	CLE	17.8%	15.7%	19.2%	3.5%	1.7%
BAL @ CHI	61.0%	CIN	84.3%	82.2%	85.7%	3.5%	1.7%
SF @ NO	61.3%	ARZ	15.0%	13.0%	16.3%	3.3%	1.6%
DET @ PIT	42.7%	NYJ	29.6%	30.8%	27.9%	-2.9%	1.5%
GB @ NYG	69.4%	CAR	77.8%	75.7%	78.8%	3.1%	1.4%
NE @ CAR	58.0%	NE	97.5%	99.2%	96.3%	-2.8%	1.4%
BAL @ CHI	61.0%	CAR	77.8%	79.5%	76.8%	-2.7%	1.3%
BAL @ CHI	61.0%	GB	21.6%	23.2%	20.6%	-2.5%	1.2%
NE @ CAR	58.0%	GB	21.6%	23.0%	20.6%	-2.5%	1.2%
RAI @ TEX	73.3%	SD	17.7%	19.6%	17.0%	-2.6%	1.1%
GB @ NYG	69.4%	ARZ	15.0%	13.3%	15.8%	2.5%	1.1%
NE @ CAR	58.0%	DET	80.7%	81.9%	79.8%	-2.1%	1.1%
NE @ CAR	58.0%	MIA	17.4%	16.2%	18.3%	2.1%	1.0%
ARZ @ JAC	28.3%	NYJ	29.6%	28.9%	31.2%	2.3%	1.0%
ATL @ TB	45.5%	CHI	18.0%	18.9%	16.8%	-2.1%	1.0%
RAI @ TEX	73.3%	RAI	0.8%	2.4%	0.2%	-2.2%	1.0%
ATL @ TB	45.5%	DET	80.7%	79.8%	81.7%	2.0%	1.0%
NE @ CAR	58.0%	SF	84.2%	85.3%	83.3%	-2.0%	1.0%
GB @ NYG	69.4%	CHI	18.0%	16.5%	18.6%	2.0%	0.9%
CLE @ CIN	69.5%	NYJ	29.6%	28.2%	30.2%	2.0%	0.9%
BAL @ CHI	61.0%	NYJ	29.6%	28.4%	30.3%	1.9%	0.9%
NYJ @ BUF	54.8%	NE	97.5%	96.5%	98.4%	1.8%	0.9%
RAI @ TEX	73.3%	TEX	1.8%	0.3%	2.3%	2.0%	0.9%
NYJ @ BUF	54.8%	ARZ	15.0%	16.0%	14.2%	-1.8%	0.9%
NYJ @ BUF	54.8%	CIN	84.3%	83.4%	85.1%	1.7%	0.8%
NYJ @ BUF	54.8%	TEN	6.0%	5.0%	6.7%	1.7%	0.8%
DET @ PIT	42.7%	CIN	84.3%	85.0%	83.3%	-1.7%	0.8%
BAL @ CHI	61.0%	ARZ	15.0%	16.1%	14.4%	-1.7%	0.8%
SD @ MIA	44.8%	TEN	6.0%	6.7%	5.1%	-1.6%	0.8%
BAL @ CHI	61.0%	PIT	5.5%	4.7%	5.9%	1.3%	0.6%
GB @ NYG	69.4%	NO	96.4%	95.5%	96.8%	1.3%	0.6%
NYJ @ BUF	54.8%	PIT	5.5%	4.8%	6.0%	1.1%	0.6%
NYJ @ BUF	54.8%	BUF	0.7%	0.1%	1.2%	1.1%	0.6%
SD @ MIA	44.8%	NYG	5.4%	5.9%	4.9%	-1.0%	0.5%
CLE @ CIN	69.5%	PIT	5.5%	6.2%	5.1%	-1.0%	0.5%
BAL @ CHI	61.0%	TEX	1.8%	1.3%	2.1%	0.8%	0.4%
BAL @ CHI	61.0%	NO	96.4%	96.9%	96.1%	-0.8%	0.4%
CLE @ CIN	69.5%	NE	97.5%	97.0%	97.8%	0.8%	0.4%
NYJ @ BUF	54.8%	WAS	2.4%	2.8%	2.1%	-0.7%	0.3%
GB @ NYG	69.4%	NE	97.5%	98.0%	97.3%	-0.7%	0.3%
BAL @ CHI	61.0%	RAI	0.8%	0.5%	1.0%	0.6%	0.3%
DET @ PIT	42.7%	IND	99.2%	99.5%	98.9%	-0.5%	0.3%
WAS @ PHI	62.1%	IND	99.2%	99.0%	99.4%	0.4%	0.2%
GB @ NYG	69.4%	BUF	0.7%	0.4%	0.8%	0.4%	0.2%
MIN @ SEA	86.4%	SEA	99.9%	99.5%	99.9%	0.4%	0.2%
KC @ DEN	75.8%	DEN	100.0%	99.8%	100.0%	0.2%	0.1%