Saturday, November 16, 2013

Playoff Implications - Week 11

Here is your weekly cheat sheet for NFL games with playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a big impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background). I can summarize the total impact a game is expected to have, as well as how it affects each particular team.

The main change from last week is that I am now filtering out results that aren't statistically significant. I am using the Fisher Exact Test for this purpose, with a significance level of 95%.

Ranking Week 11 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 11 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

GameLeverage
BAL @ CHI 32.7%
WAS @ PHI 26.0%
SD @ MIA 25.8%
CLE @ CIN 25.6%
NYJ @ BUF 22.3%
GB @ NYG 20.5%
NE @ CAR 20.0%
DET @ PIT 19.1%
SF @ NO 12.2%
ARZ @ JAC 10.9%
RAI @ TEX 3.0%
ATL @ TB 2.0%
MIN @ SEA 0.2%
KC @ DEN 0.1%

The top game this week is Baltimore-Chicago, which has implications for two tight divisional races as well as each conference's wild card slots. Note that the lowest leverage game is Kansas City @ Denver. While this game has huge implications for seeding, it has very little impact on which teams make the playoffs (the Chiefs and Broncos are locks for the playoffs, regardless of the outcome of their Sunday Night matchup).

Beyond Week 11

I can also use my simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 12-17 games by total leverage. Think of this as a cheat sheet for whoever at NBC is in charge of flex scheduling.

WeekGameLeverage
17 PHI @ DAL 46.6%
13 GB @ DET 37.6%
16 CHI @ PHI 37.0%
15 GB @ DAL 36.9%
14 DET @ PHI 36.0%
12 CAR @ MIA 35.0%
15 NYJ @ CAR 34.6%
14 DAL @ CHI 34.1%
13 ARZ @ PHI 33.4%
12 NYJ @ BAL 32.3%

Once again, the top games are dominated by NFC East and NFC North matchups.

Week 11 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 10. You can filter by game or team below. As mentioned above, I have already weeded out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game: <-or-> Select Team:

home team:
gamegame probteamplayoff probloseswinsswingleverage
WAS @ PHI 62.1% PHI 42.3% 24.4% 53.2% 28.8% 14.0%
CLE @ CIN 69.5% CLE 17.8% 37.2% 9.3% -27.9% 12.9%
SD @ MIA 44.8% SD 17.7% 28.1% 4.8% -23.3% 11.6%
SD @ MIA 44.8% MIA 17.4% 7.3% 29.8% 22.4% 11.1%
CLE @ CIN 69.5% CIN 84.3% 67.7% 91.6% 23.8% 11.0%
NYJ @ BUF 54.8% NYJ 29.6% 41.7% 19.6% -22.1% 11.0%
BAL @ CHI 61.0% BAL 21.9% 34.6% 13.8% -20.8% 10.1%
NE @ CAR 58.0% CAR 77.8% 66.8% 85.8% 19.0% 9.4%
GB @ NYG 69.4% GB 21.6% 34.5% 15.9% -18.6% 8.6%
SF @ NO 61.3% SF 84.2% 93.9% 78.0% -15.9% 7.7%
DET @ PIT 42.7% DET 80.7% 86.9% 72.2% -14.7% 7.3%
WAS @ PHI 62.1% DAL 56.2% 65.4% 50.6% -14.8% 7.2%
BAL @ CHI 61.0% CHI 18.0% 9.3% 23.5% 14.1% 6.9%
ARZ @ JAC 28.3% ARZ 15.0% 18.6% 6.1% -12.5% 5.6%
DET @ PIT 42.7% PIT 5.5% 2.4% 9.6% 7.2% 3.5%
DET @ PIT 42.7% CHI 18.0% 15.3% 21.5% 6.3% 3.1%
GB @ NYG 69.4% DET 80.7% 76.2% 82.6% 6.4% 3.0%
SF @ NO 61.3% NO 96.4% 92.8% 98.7% 5.9% 2.9%
DET @ PIT 42.7% GB 21.6% 19.3% 24.7% 5.4% 2.7%
WAS @ PHI 62.1% WAS 2.4% 5.7% 0.4% -5.3% 2.6%
GB @ NYG 69.4% NYG 5.4% 1.6% 7.1% 5.6% 2.6%
NE @ CAR 58.0% ARZ 15.0% 18.0% 12.8% -5.2% 2.6%
NYJ @ BUF 54.8% MIA 17.4% 14.6% 19.7% 5.0% 2.5%
BAL @ CHI 61.0% MIA 17.4% 14.3% 19.4% 5.0% 2.5%
NE @ CAR 58.0% CHI 18.0% 20.7% 16.0% -4.7% 2.3%
ARZ @ JAC 28.3% CAR 77.8% 76.4% 81.4% 5.0% 2.3%
WAS @ PHI 62.1% NYG 5.4% 8.1% 3.8% -4.3% 2.1%
BAL @ CHI 61.0% DET 80.7% 83.2% 79.0% -4.1% 2.0%
NYJ @ BUF 54.8% SD 17.7% 15.5% 19.5% 4.0% 2.0%
ARZ @ JAC 28.3% SF 84.2% 82.9% 87.3% 4.4% 2.0%
NYJ @ BUF 54.8% BAL 21.9% 19.8% 23.7% 3.9% 1.9%
GB @ NYG 69.4% PHI 42.3% 45.1% 41.1% -4.0% 1.8%
SD @ MIA 44.8% NYJ 29.6% 28.0% 31.6% 3.6% 1.8%
BAL @ CHI 61.0% SD 17.7% 15.5% 19.1% 3.6% 1.7%
BAL @ CHI 61.0% CLE 17.8% 15.7% 19.2% 3.5% 1.7%
BAL @ CHI 61.0% CIN 84.3% 82.2% 85.7% 3.5% 1.7%
SF @ NO 61.3% ARZ 15.0% 13.0% 16.3% 3.3% 1.6%
DET @ PIT 42.7% NYJ 29.6% 30.8% 27.9% -2.9% 1.5%
GB @ NYG 69.4% CAR 77.8% 75.7% 78.8% 3.1% 1.4%
NE @ CAR 58.0% NE 97.5% 99.2% 96.3% -2.8% 1.4%
BAL @ CHI 61.0% CAR 77.8% 79.5% 76.8% -2.7% 1.3%
BAL @ CHI 61.0% GB 21.6% 23.2% 20.6% -2.5% 1.2%
NE @ CAR 58.0% GB 21.6% 23.0% 20.6% -2.5% 1.2%
RAI @ TEX 73.3% SD 17.7% 19.6% 17.0% -2.6% 1.1%
GB @ NYG 69.4% ARZ 15.0% 13.3% 15.8% 2.5% 1.1%
NE @ CAR 58.0% DET 80.7% 81.9% 79.8% -2.1% 1.1%
NE @ CAR 58.0% MIA 17.4% 16.2% 18.3% 2.1% 1.0%
ARZ @ JAC 28.3% NYJ 29.6% 28.9% 31.2% 2.3% 1.0%
ATL @ TB 45.5% CHI 18.0% 18.9% 16.8% -2.1% 1.0%
RAI @ TEX 73.3% RAI 0.8% 2.4% 0.2% -2.2% 1.0%
ATL @ TB 45.5% DET 80.7% 79.8% 81.7% 2.0% 1.0%
NE @ CAR 58.0% SF 84.2% 85.3% 83.3% -2.0% 1.0%
GB @ NYG 69.4% CHI 18.0% 16.5% 18.6% 2.0% 0.9%
CLE @ CIN 69.5% NYJ 29.6% 28.2% 30.2% 2.0% 0.9%
BAL @ CHI 61.0% NYJ 29.6% 28.4% 30.3% 1.9% 0.9%
NYJ @ BUF 54.8% NE 97.5% 96.5% 98.4% 1.8% 0.9%
RAI @ TEX 73.3% TEX 1.8% 0.3% 2.3% 2.0% 0.9%
NYJ @ BUF 54.8% ARZ 15.0% 16.0% 14.2% -1.8% 0.9%
NYJ @ BUF 54.8% CIN 84.3% 83.4% 85.1% 1.7% 0.8%
NYJ @ BUF 54.8% TEN 6.0% 5.0% 6.7% 1.7% 0.8%
DET @ PIT 42.7% CIN 84.3% 85.0% 83.3% -1.7% 0.8%
BAL @ CHI 61.0% ARZ 15.0% 16.1% 14.4% -1.7% 0.8%
SD @ MIA 44.8% TEN 6.0% 6.7% 5.1% -1.6% 0.8%
BAL @ CHI 61.0% PIT 5.5% 4.7% 5.9% 1.3% 0.6%
GB @ NYG 69.4% NO 96.4% 95.5% 96.8% 1.3% 0.6%
NYJ @ BUF 54.8% PIT 5.5% 4.8% 6.0% 1.1% 0.6%
NYJ @ BUF 54.8% BUF 0.7% 0.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.6%
SD @ MIA 44.8% NYG 5.4% 5.9% 4.9% -1.0% 0.5%
CLE @ CIN 69.5% PIT 5.5% 6.2% 5.1% -1.0% 0.5%
BAL @ CHI 61.0% TEX 1.8% 1.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.4%
BAL @ CHI 61.0% NO 96.4% 96.9% 96.1% -0.8% 0.4%
CLE @ CIN 69.5% NE 97.5% 97.0% 97.8% 0.8% 0.4%
NYJ @ BUF 54.8% WAS 2.4% 2.8% 2.1% -0.7% 0.3%
GB @ NYG 69.4% NE 97.5% 98.0% 97.3% -0.7% 0.3%
BAL @ CHI 61.0% RAI 0.8% 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3%
DET @ PIT 42.7% IND 99.2% 99.5% 98.9% -0.5% 0.3%
WAS @ PHI 62.1% IND 99.2% 99.0% 99.4% 0.4% 0.2%
GB @ NYG 69.4% BUF 0.7% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2%
MIN @ SEA 86.4% SEA 99.9% 99.5% 99.9% 0.4% 0.2%
KC @ DEN 75.8% DEN 100.0% 99.8% 100.0% 0.2% 0.1%

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