Friday, October 18, 2013

Turnover Index - Week 7

Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 7. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Week 6 results

Week 6 picks (or pick) went 1-0 against the spread (Chargers covered against the Colts). Here are the season to date results:
  • Against the Spread: 1-2
  • Starting Bankroll: $1,000
  • Current Bankroll: $761 (-24% ROI)
There is a table at the bottom of the post which summarizes performance by week in more detail.

Week 7 Picks

There are three recommended bets against the spread this week: Redskins over Bears, Texans over Chiefs, and Jets over Patriots. The table below shows the turnover differential, probability of covering, and the recommended fraction of bankroll to bet, according to the Kelly Criterion. We're betting 17.2% of our (fictional) $761 bankroll this week.

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Bears @ Redskins 17 7 -10 -1.4 Redskins 54.1% 3.5%
Texans @ Chiefs 3 18 15 2.5 Texans 57.0% 9.8%
Patriots @ Jets 12 3 -9 -1.5 Jets 54.2% 3.9%

Weekly Results

The table below summarizes the betting results by week.

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
4 2 0 $1,000 $268 (26.8%) ($268) $731
6 1 1 $731 $32 (4.5%) $29 $761

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