Monday, September 9, 2013

US Open Mens Final - Win Probability Graph

Here is the win probability graph for Rafael Nadal's four set victory over Novak Djokovic in the US Open Mens Final (pretty much identical to the live version). See Jeff Sackmann's recap for a detailed breakdown of the match. I don't have much to add, other than to point out that the Mens Final and Womens Final had nearly equivalent numbers for the Excitement Index and Comeback Factor.

Novak Djokovic2641 Excitement4.3
Rafael Nadal6366 Comeback0.6


Point Probabilities (Model Inputs)
PlayerServeReturn
Djokovic0.6190.369
Nadal0.6310.381

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