Monday, September 2, 2013

US Open Daily Graph - Gasquet vs Raonic

Richard Gasquet (7298681210)
Richard Gasquet
I debated between creating the graph for this match, or Tommy Robredo's upset of Roger Federer. I landed on Richard Gasquet's five set defeat of Milos Raonic. While Federer's loss was the more surprising outcome, the fact that he lost in straight sets would have made for a fairly boring win probability graph.

The graph for this match, however, is almost too interesting. With 399 points played, the movements of the win probability line are sometimes hard to resolve (use the time sliders on the bottom to zoom in). Interesting to note that Raonic lost the match despite winning 14 more points than Gasquet.


Richard Gasquet67277 Excitement13.8
Milos Raonic76665 Comeback10


Point Probabilities (Model Inputs)
PlayerServeReturn
Gasquet0.6190.369
Raonic0.6310.381

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