Wednesday, September 4, 2013

US Open Daily Graph - Gasquet vs Ferrer

David Ferrer - Roland Garros 2013 - 008
David Ferrer
Of the four singles matches today, Richard Gasquet's victory over David Ferrer was the only one that was not decided in straight sets. A key turning point in the match came in the fifth set.  With Ferrer serving at 15-15 and Gasquet leading the set 3-2, Gasquet won three straight points to break Ferrer's serve and take a 4-2 lead. In those three points, Gasquet's win probability increased from 50% to 81%.

Additional background here and here.

Richard Gasquet66426 Excitement5.6
David Ferrer31663 Comeback3.0


Point Probabilities (Model Inputs)
PlayerServeReturn
Gasquet0.6070.358
Ferrer0.6420.393

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