Sunday, September 8, 2013

US Open Daily Graph - Djokovic vs Wawrinka

Today's graph comes from Novak Djokovic's "comeback" victory over Stanislas Wawrinka in the US Open Semi-Finals. For evenly matched players, the probability graph below would have had a lot more movement to it.  But this was not an evenly matched game as Djokovic had an initial win probability of 82%.  Even in his deepest hole (dropped the first set and down 2-4 in the second), Novak's win probability only got as low as 40.2%.  This is consistent with the in-play odds offered at William Hill sportsbook, where Djokovic was never worse than 3/2 to win the match (~40% probability).

For a breakdown of the match by someone that actually knows a few things about tennis, see Jeff Sackmann's recap at Heavy Topspin.

Novak Djokovic27366 Excitement8.0
Stanislas Wawrinka66634 Comeback1.5


Point Probabilities (Model Inputs)
PlayerServeReturn
Djokovic0.6530.404
Wawrinka0.5960.347

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