NFL Week 3 Rankings

Here are the week 3 NFL betting market rankings. The daily version of these should be up and running soon, as I now have enough weeks of lines and totals to have a properly connected dataset. I still plan on posting a weekly version as a standalone blog post so that past results are a bit easier to view.

These rankings attempt to figure out what the market really "thinks" about each team by reverse engineering an implied power ranking from the Vegas point spread. See here and here for more background.

#1 vs #32

Week three features a matchup between the #1 team (the Seahawks) and the #32 team (the Jaguars). The Seahawks are a 19 point favorite against the Jaguars at home. Since 1999, there have been 14 games in which a team has been favored by at least 19 points. Prior to this week's game, the previous five were games in which the Patriots were favored (four from their 2007 "Are you not entertained?" phase and one from 2011 in which they faced a Dan Orlovsky-led Colts team). Just a side note: of those fourteen games, the underdog covered (but never won) 10 of those 14 times (71.4%).

Rank	Team	Week 2	GPF
1	SEA	3	8.1
2	DEN	1	7.7
3	SF	2	6.4
4	GB	4	5.9
5	NO	6	3.6
6	HOU	7	3.5
7	NE	5	2.8
8	CHI	9	1.6
9	DET	13	1.5
10	ATL	8	1.4
11	CIN	10	1.0
12	PHI	11	0.8
13	MIA	20	0.6
14	WAS	12	0.4
15	KC	18	0.2
16	DAL	16	-0.2
17	IND	17	-0.2
18	NYG	19	-0.3
19	BAL	14	-0.9
20	CAR	15	-0.9
21	STL	22	-1.2
22	TB	21	-1.3
23	ARI	26	-1.5
24	MIN	23	-2.0
25	SD	27	-2.0
26	TEN	25	-2.1
27	PIT	24	-2.6
28	CLE	28	-4.6
29	OAK	31	-5.0
30	NYJ	29	-5.5
31	BUF	30	-6.1
32	JAC	32	-9.0