Monday, September 30, 2013

How high will the Jaguars-Broncos point spread go?

Barry Petchesky of Deadspin today speculated that the week 6 matchup between the Jaguars and the Broncos could have the largest point spread in NFL history. According to a tweet from RJ Bell, Jay Kornegay, director of the Las Vegas Hilton sportsbook, puts the point spread at 28 points.

According to my rankings (as of September 30*), that number seems a bit high. The Broncos' GPF (Generic Points Favored) is 8.7 points. The Jaguars' GPF is -11.5 points. Factoring in a generic home field advantage of 2.5 would imply a point spread of 22.5. According to sportsdatabase.com, there have been two games since 1989 with a point spread at least that high.

Early week 6 lines should be available soon, so we'll see where they start the spread and how it eventually closes.

* There was an error in the rankings table that has since been corrected. The original version of this post had a predicted point spread of 21.5.

7 comments:

  1. Compared to the rankings on the chart, the Jaguars have underperformed in every one of the their games so far by 7 points or more. (4 if you give Oakland some home field advantage.) So, 28 points is easily plausible. I think a large part of the issue is how hard Denver is willing to step on the gas.

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  2. The line looks like it's opening in the 25-26 point range. Everybody is saying that it will only go up from there, but I would bet the opposite. I think either the Jags or the Broncos will regress to the mean in week 5, and the spread will come down to the 23 point range.

    But if the Broncos blow through their point spread by a couple touchdowns again in week 5 or the Jags fail to cover by that much, I can see the line staying at that record setting level of 26-27 points.

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    1. Or not. Broncos fail to cover and the Jags underperform by only three points: line is at 26.5.

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  3. Have you thought about a ticker for the English Premier League? Would be pretty cool, and as far as I know there's nothing like it out there.

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    1. It's something I'd like to take a look at when I find the time. Getting a reliable data source may be the key problem. All the other sports I cover have data available in a nicely structured way from sportsdatabase.com, but not so with soccer.

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  4. Bring in that global audience.

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  5. As far as I know, this site breaks new ground every time it introduces a new sport to the ticker.

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