Saturday, July 13, 2013

MLB Rankings Now Available (finally)

Clayton Kershaw 2010 (2)
Clayton Kershaw - Vegas' Favorite Pitcher
Just in time for the All Star break. These have been up and running for the past week now, but I haven't had a chance to put up the announcement till now. These are the same rankings I published on a daily basis last year, with a few methodology tweaks. See my original posts on the topic from last year for a detailed overview of the methodology.

As with my other sports rankings, my goal is to reverse engineer an implied power ranking from the betting lines and totals. In other words, I'm trying to figure out what the betting market "thinks" are the best and worst teams.

Because baseball uses moneylines instead of run spreads, I have to convert the moneylines into an implied probability, and then combine that probability with the betting run total to arrive at an implied (fractional) runs scored for each teams (using pythagorean expectation). I can then run my regression analysis just as I do for the other point spread-based sports.