Thursday, June 20, 2013

NBA Finals Game 7 - Win Probability Graph

Win probability graph for Game 7. Top play was Mario Chalmers' buzzer beating three pointer to end the third quarter. Lebron's pull up jumper with 0:27 on the clock will probably dominate the highlight reel, but it was the 24th most important play in terms of win probability. Tim Duncan's miss from point blank range had a much bigger impact on the game. More background here and here.

San Antonio Spurs88 Excitement5.7
Miami Heat95 Comeback0.8


TOP PLAYS
Prior StatePlayEnd StateBeforeChangeAfter
Q3 | 0:05 | SAS:71 MIA:69 | Poss:MIAMario Chalmers makes 30-foot three point jumperQ3 | 0:00 | SAS:71 MIA:72 | Poss:SAS58.7%+10.3%69.0%
Q4 | 2:15 | SAS:85 MIA:90 | Poss:SASKawhi Leonard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Manu Ginobili assists)Q4 | 2:00 | SAS:88 MIA:90 | Poss:MIA93.3%-9.6%83.7%
Q4 | 11:45 | SAS:71 MIA:72 | Poss:MIAShane Battier makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)Q4 | 11:34 | SAS:71 MIA:75 | Poss:SAS70.5%+9.5%80.1%
Q4 | 1:34 | SAS:88 MIA:90 | Poss:SASLeBron James offensive reboundQ4 | 1:04 | SAS:88 MIA:90 | Poss:MIA78.3%+9.3%87.5%
Q4 | 0:47 | SAS:88 MIA:90 | Poss:SASTim Duncan misses hook shot (Chris Bosh defensive rebound)Q4 | 0:42 | SAS:88 MIA:90 | Poss:MIA80.6%+9.3%89.8%

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