Wednesday, June 12, 2013

NBA Finals Game 3 - Win Probability Graph

Here is the win probability graph for Game 3. More background here and here. Top play was Gary Neal's three point buzzer beater at the half.

Miami Heat77 Excitement2.8
San Antonio Spurs113 Comeback0.8


TOP PLAYS
Prior StatePlayEnd StateBeforeChangeAfter
Q2 | 0:03 | MIA:44 SAS:47 | Poss:SASGary Neal makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tony Parker assists)Q2 | 0:00 | MIA:44 SAS:50 | Poss:MIA66.7%+7.6%74.3%
Q3 | 12:00 | MIA:44 SAS:50 | Poss:Chris Bosh bad pass (Kawhi Leonard steals)Q3 | 11:48 | MIA:44 SAS:50 | Poss:SAS69.3%+6.9%76.2%
Q2 | 1:14 | MIA:39 SAS:43 | Poss:MIAMike Miller makes 24-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)Q2 | 1:07 | MIA:42 SAS:43 | Poss:SAS66.3%-5.1%61.1%
Q2 | 0:37 | MIA:44 SAS:44 | Poss:SASTony Parker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Manu Ginobili assists)Q2 | 0:26 | MIA:44 SAS:47 | Poss:MIA58.4%+5.0%63.4%
Q3 | 9:41 | MIA:46 SAS:54 | Poss:SASDanny Green makes 24-foot three point jumperQ3 | 9:26 | MIA:46 SAS:57 | Poss:MIA80.5%+4.8%85.3%

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