A promised in this post, here is the win probability graph for Game 1 of the NBA Finals, in which a well-rested Spurs team upset the Miami Heat. The graph below has two metrics at the top which I have completely stolen from Advanced NFL Stats:
- Excitement - This is a measure of how much drama there was in the game. It sums up the total absolute movement in the win probability graph. So, for Game 1, the win probability "travelled" a total of 6.9 wins from start to finish.
- Comeback - This measures, for the winning team, what the longest odds were against them coming back. With 8:51 left in the 3rd quarter, the Heat were up by 7 and had a 85.3% win probability, working out to about 6 to 1 odds against the Spurs.
The top play of the game was Ray Allen's three points from the line at 1:28, increasing the Heat's win probability by 16% (in a losing effort).
|San Antonio Spurs||92||Excitement||6.0|