Saturday, May 11, 2013

NBA Playoff Probabilities

A week or so ago I added playoff probabilities for each round to my daily NBA rankings (see the columns on the right).  Much like my playoff seed projections from the regular season, these are based on simulating the remainder of the playoffs (5,000 times), using my team rankings as the basis for the outcome probability of each future game.

I have now also added a visual display of those probabilities over time (I called this the Bird's Eye view last season).  You can find the graphs here.  Each team is represented by a color on the graph (I tried to use official team colors).  The legend on the right is in the same order of the stacking, and you can also just mouseover the graph for the detail.  Here is a smaller version of the graph for reference: