Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Turnover Index - Week 14

Here are the Turnover Index numbers for Week 14 of the NFL season.  The purpose of these weekly posts is to find betting opportunities that exploit the market's tendency to overvalue a team's season to date defensive turnovers.  See here and here for more background.


Week 13 Performance

Results were positive for week 13, going 2-1-1 against the spread.  The Steelers and Seahawks covered as underdogs, both winning outright.  The Raiders just missed covering the spread, losing by 3 as a 2.5 point underdog and the Dolphins managed a push against the Patriots, losing by 7.

Turnover Index through Week 13 (Against the Spread): 11-7-1

Overall, that is 60.5% against the spread, consistent with the results from 1998-2011.

Week 14 Picks

This week will be interesting as there are six betting opportunities this week.  As a reminder, the criterion we use is any game in which there is at least a 10 defensive turnover differential between the two teams.  We bet on the team with the lower amount of turnovers.  See the table at the bottom of the post for the details.

  • Chicago @ Minnesota - Pick: Minnesota
  • Arizona @ Seattle - Pick: Seattle
  • San Diego @ Pittsburgh - Pick: Pittsburgh
  • Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay - Pick: Philadelphia
  • New Orleans @ New York Giants - Pick: New Orleans
  • Kansas City @ Cleveland - Pick: Kansas City

Here is the complete table of matchups: