Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Turnover Index - Week 14

Here are the Turnover Index numbers for Week 14 of the NFL season.  The purpose of these weekly posts is to find betting opportunities that exploit the market's tendency to overvalue a team's season to date defensive turnovers.  See here and here for more background.


Week 13 Performance

Results were positive for week 13, going 2-1-1 against the spread.  The Steelers and Seahawks covered as underdogs, both winning outright.  The Raiders just missed covering the spread, losing by 3 as a 2.5 point underdog and the Dolphins managed a push against the Patriots, losing by 7.

Turnover Index through Week 13 (Against the Spread): 11-7-1

Overall, that is 60.5% against the spread, consistent with the results from 1998-2011.

Week 14 Picks

This week will be interesting as there are six betting opportunities this week.  As a reminder, the criterion we use is any game in which there is at least a 10 defensive turnover differential between the two teams.  We bet on the team with the lower amount of turnovers.  See the table at the bottom of the post for the details.

  • Chicago @ Minnesota - Pick: Minnesota
  • Arizona @ Seattle - Pick: Seattle
  • San Diego @ Pittsburgh - Pick: Pittsburgh
  • Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay - Pick: Philadelphia
  • New Orleans @ New York Giants - Pick: New Orleans
  • Kansas City @ Cleveland - Pick: Kansas City

Here is the complete table of matchups:

6 comments:

  1. It seems that the spread underrates Seattle and Minnesota at home, and New Orleans and Philadelphia on the road too, so those four games look extra-tasty.

    I'm tinkering with looking at points off of turnovers vs. regular turnovers as a predictive factor, but it's a little bit of a chore with the data set that I have.

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  2. Good calls. They went 3-1 to my 3-3.

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  3. With that many trials, you can be sure I know what I'm doing. ;)

    I did a least squares regression of home field advantage by team from 2000-2011 and got an average home field advantage of around 2.7 points. It seems the teams with the most home field advantage are the Vikings, Seahawks, Ravens, Rams and 49ers, and the ones with the least home field advantage are the Giants, Panthers, Bengals, Eagles, and Saints.

    Betting as if the spread mistakenly uses a flat home field advantage - for example taking the spread for the Giants on the road, and against them at home - seems to do significantly better the 52.5 you cited as a threshold. It also corresponds to a lot more bets per year. Working back through the season so far using line data from footballlocks.com ...

    Week 1: 4-4-0
    against Giants - win
    for Eagles - lose
    against Saints - win
    for Panthers - lose
    against 49ers - lose
    against Seahawks - win
    against Rams - lose
    for Vikings - Win
    Bengals @ Ravens - both strong no bet.

    Week 2: 3-3-2 (7-7-2)
    against Giants - win
    against Minnesota - push
    Saints @ Panthers - lose (2 units)
    Eagles @ Ravens - both strong no bet.
    against Bengals - push
    for Seahawks - win
    against Rams - lose
    for 49ers - win

    Week 3: 7-3-0 (14-10-2)
    Giants @ Panthers - win (2 units)
    for Rams - lose
    49ers @ Vikings - win (2 units)
    for Bengals - win
    against Saints - win
    for Eagles - lose
    for Ravens - lose
    for Seattle - win

    Week 4: 4-3-2 (18-13-4)
    for Ravens - lose
    against Vikings - lose
    for Panthers - win
    against 49ers - lose
    Seahawks @ Rams - win (2 units)
    for Bengals - win
    for Saints - win
    Giants @ Eagles - push (2 units)

    Week 5: 6-2-0 (24-15-4)
    for Rams - win
    for Eagles - win
    against Giants - lose
    for Vikings - win
    against Bengals - win
    against Ravens - win
    Seahawks @ Panthers - both weak, no bet
    for 49ers - win
    against Saints - lose

    ...
    I'm getting tired, 60% is a bit better than the high 50's I expected to see. Running more weeks will probably show mean reversion.

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  4. Week 6: 3-3-0 (27-18-4)
    Cincinnati -1.5 - lose
    Baltimore -3 - lose
    Detroit +3.5 - win
    Miami -5.5 - lose
    Seattle +4 - win
    Washington +2 - win

    Giants vs SFO - both strong no bet
    New Orleans, Carolina - bye.

    Week 7: 5-3-1 (32-21-5)
    San Francisco -8 (2 units) vs Seattle - Lose
    Vikings -7 - push
    Houston -6.5 - win
    St Louis +5 - lose
    Dallas +2.5 - win
    Washington +6 - win
    New Orleans -1.5 - win
    Pittsburg -1.5 - win

    Philadelpha - Bye

    Week 8: 5-3-0 (37-24-5)
    Minnesota -5.5 - Lose
    New England -7 - Win
    Atlanta +3 - Win
    Detroit -2.5 - Win
    Carolina +7 - Win
    NYG -3 - Win
    New Orleans +6 - Lose
    Arizona +7 - Lose

    Cincinnati, Baltimore Bye

    Week 9: 5-3-0 (42-27-5)
    Denver -5 - win
    Cleveland +3.5 - lose
    Carolina +3 - win
    Seattle -4.5 (2 units) - win
    Pittsburgh +3.5 - win
    Philadelphia +3 (2 units) - lose

    San Francisco, St Louis bye

    Week 10: 5-3-0 (47-30-5)
    NYG at Cin - both strong no bet
    Denver -3.5 - win
    Baltimore -7.5 - win
    Atlanta -2 - lose
    Minnesota +3 - win
    Seattle -5.5 - win
    Dallas -2.5 - win
    San Francisco -13.5 (2 units) - lose

    Week 11: 4-2-1 (51-32-6)
    Philadelphia +3.5 - lose
    Tampa Bay -1 - win
    St. Louis -3.5 - lose
    Cincinnati -3 - win
    New Orleans -6 - win
    Pittsburgh +3 - push
    San Francisco -3.5 - win

    NYG, Seattle, Minnesota - bye

    Week 12: 3-5-0 (54-37-6)
    Oakland +7.5 - lose
    Chicago -6.5 - lose
    Miami +3 - win
    San Diego +1 - lose
    San Francisco @ New Orleans both weak, no bet
    Arizona -1.5 - lose
    Green Bay +3 - lose
    Carolina -3 (2 units) - win

    Week 13: 5-5 (59-42-6)
    New Orleans +3.5 - lose
    Chicago -3 - lose
    Green Bay -7.5 - win
    Saint Louis +7.5 (2 units) - win
    Carolina -5.5 - lose
    Baltimore -7 - lose
    Cincinnati +0 - win
    Philadelphia +10.5 - win
    Giants -3 - lose

    Week 14: 7-3-0 (66-45-6)
    Washington -2 - win
    Minnesota +1.5 - win
    Atlanta -3.5 - lose
    Philadelphia +7 - win
    St. Louis +3.5 - win
    Dallas +3 - win
    San Francisco -11 - win
    New Orleans +4.5 (2 units) - lose
    Seattle -10.5 - win

    (66+3)/(66+45+6) = .6052...
    Still better than I expected...

    Week 15 picks...
    Cincinnati -3 (2 units)
    NYG +1.5
    Tampa Bay +3
    St Louis -3 (2 units)
    Baltimore +2.5
    Carolina +3
    Buffalo +5
    New England -4

    Week 16 picks:
    New Orleans
    Washington
    Cincinnati
    Tampa Bay
    Oakland
    Houston
    Seattle (2 units)

    Week 17 picks:
    Minnesota
    Carolina (2 units)
    Eagles (2 units)
    49ers
    Seahawks (2 units)

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  5. Interesting results. The odd thing is, based on some regressions I've done on the point spreads, Vegas appears to give the Seahawks a 3.5 point home advantage. They're number 1. And the Giants, Saints, and Bengals are at the bottom, closer to 2 points.

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  6. 160 games are really not enough to assess a custom HFA, if you are only using scores as the input.

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