Last week's picks went 1-1 against the spread. Carolina covered the 7.5 point spread in their game against the Bears. The Cowboys, as a 2.5 point underdog, were unable to cover the spread, done in by Dez Bryant's pinky (and instinct for self preservation).
Turnover Index Through Week 8 (ATS): 4-2-0
There are two betting opportunities this week, according to the criterion of a minimum ten defensive turnover differential between the teams:
- Chicago at Tennessee - Chicago, although failing to cover against Carolina, continues to defy expectations by winning with turnovers. This past week, it was Tim Jennings' pick-six that proved to be the crucial play (a 35% win probability swing). The Bears have 15 more defensive turnovers than the Titans, therefore we would predict the Titans to cover the 3.5 spread as an underdog.
- Pittsburgh at New York (Giants) - The Giants have been the beneficiaries of a league-leading 24 defensive turnovers this season, 6 of them coming against the Cowboys last week (although Stevie Brown's second pick of Romo actually hurt the Giants more than the Cowboys, costing them a few yards of field position - on fourth down, the smart play would have been to swat the ball down). We would expect Pittsburgh to cover the spread as a 3.5 point underdog.
Here is the complete table: