Wednesday, October 24, 2012

The Turnover Index - Week 8

Here are the Turnover Index numbers for Week 8 of the NFL season.  The purpose of these weekly posts is to find betting opportunities by exploiting the market's tendency to overvalue a team's season to date defensive turnovers when evaluating future performance.  See here and here for more background.

The Turnover Index went 2-0 against the spread last week, although the Bears-Lions game was about as close as you can get (the point spread was 6.5 points, which the Lions just covered by closing the gap to 6 points with 36 seconds left in the game). The other pick, the Colts, beat the Browns by 4, having been favored by 2.5.

Turnover Index Through Week 7 (ATS): 3-1-0

There are once again two betting opportunities this week, according to our minimum 10 turnover differential criteria:

  • Giants at Cowboys - The Cowboys have forced only 6 turnovers this season compared to the Giants' 18.  The index predicts the Cowboys to cover the spread (they are currently a two point underdog)
  • Panthers at Bears - The Bears once again show up on the list, having added four more defensive turnovers in their victory over the Lions Monday Night.  I think Chicago is determined to be the exception to the rule that defensive turnovers are mostly random.  The turnover index would predict the Panthers to cover the spread.  They are currently 7.5 point underdogs.
Here is the complete table:

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