Monday, October 15, 2012

The Turnover Index - Week 7

San Diego and Denver have yet to play, but they are both on bye next week, so I can go ahead and update the Turnover Index with data through week 6.  If you don't know what this is, see here and here.

Things evened up this week on the season-to-date results, with the Turnover Index predicting Oakland to cover the nine point spread against Atlanta (which they did, in a wild, losing effort).


Turnover Index Through Week 6 (ATS): 1-1-0

See below for the week 7 matchups.  There are two games which meet the criteria of having at least a 10 turnover differential between the two competing teams.

  • Cleveland at Indy: Cleveland has been the beneficiary of 14 defensive turnovers this season, with 4 coming in their win yesterday over the Bengals.  The Colts, on the other hand, have only managed three defensive turnovers in five games.  So, we would predict Indy to cover the spread against the Browns.
  • Detroit at Chicago: The Bears make another appearance on the Turnover Index, with an 11 point turnover differential over their upcoming opponent the Lions.  According to our simple model, we would expect the Lions to be more likely to cover.

4 comments:

  1. It looks like the table didn't upload this week. Thanks.

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  2. Table shows for me.

    I wonder if there are other high impact / low predictive value things like special teams plays that can be usefully incorporated with the turnover index.

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    1. I imagine that may the case. The difficulty is the relative rarity of big special teams plays. Turnovers are a fairly common occurrence, but that still only results in 1 or 2 betting opportunities per week according to my criterion. There might not be a big enough sample size on special teams plays.

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