Win Probability of Team A beating Team B = 1/(1+exp(-(GPFa - GPFb)/6))
I then simulate the tournament outcomes 10,000 times and summarize the results. As a point of comparison, I also have the odds to win according to bovada.lv and the expected ROI of a bet at those odds.
According to the simulation, both Syracuse and Kentucky are positive ROI bets. Although it's very possible that my rankings have overestimated the strength of those teams.
The vig for this week's Bovada tournament odds was 22% (smaller than last week's 50%).