Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Tournament Probabilities - Sweet Sixteen

Here are the Tournament Probabilities for the remaining Sweet Sixteen teams.  To simulate game outcomes, I use my betting market rankings and convert the point spread ranking to a probability via the following formula:

Win Probability of Team A beating Team B = 1/(1+exp(-(GPFa - GPFb)/6))

I then simulate the tournament outcomes 10,000 times and summarize the results.  As a point of comparison, I also have the odds to win according to bovada.lv and the expected ROI of a bet at those odds.




According to the simulation, both Syracuse and Kentucky are positive ROI bets. Although it's very possible that my rankings have overestimated the strength of those teams.  

The "Vig"

The vig for this week's Bovada tournament odds was 22% (smaller than last week's 50%).

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