Saturday, March 24, 2012

NBA Team Rankings - March 24, 2012

Mike Woodson
Knicks' coach Mike Woodson
Here are the NBA Team Rankings as of March 24, 2012. These rankings use the Vegas point spreads from recent games to derive an implied measure of team strength (Generic Points Favored, or GPF).  By combining the point spread information with the betting over/unders, I can also decompose team strength into its offensive and defensive components (oGPF and dGPF). For more detail, see the Methodology page.


The Heat have extended their lead atop the rankings to a full three points.  The Knicks, despite having the 20th best record in the league, are ranked #5, nearly even with the Spurs.



The Rankings

Rank Team LstWk GPF oGPF dGPF GOU W-L GWP
1  MIA 1 9.0 4.5 6 4.5 2 195 14 33-11 2 0.79
2  CHI 2 6.0 1.5 10 4.5 3 192 18 37-10 1 0.72
3  OKC 3 5.5 6.0 1 -0.5 16 202 6 33-11 3 0.70
4  SAS 4 4.0 5.5 2 -1.5 20 202 5 29-14 4 0.66
5  NYK 7 4.0 5.0 4 -1.0 17 201 7 21-24 20 0.64
6  PHI 5 3.5 -2.5 23 6.0 1 187 29 25-20 12 0.64
7  LAL 6 3.5 -0.5 16 4.0 7 191 24 28-17 6 0.63
8  ORL 8 2.5 -1.5 21 4.0 4 189 26 29-17 5 0.60
9  IND 9 2.5 0.0 15 2.5 11 193 16 25-18 9 0.59
10  LAC 10 2.0 -1.0 19 3.0 8 191 23 26-18 7 0.58
11  DEN 11 1.5 5.0 3 -3.5 27 204 2 25-20 13 0.56
12  MEM 12 1.5 -1.0 20 2.5 10 192 20 25-18 8 0.55
13  DAL 13 1.0 -1.5 22 2.5 9 191 25 26-20 11 0.54
14  MIL 17 1.0 4.5 5 -3.5 28 204 3 20-24 21 0.54
15  BOS 14 0.5 -3.5 26 4.0 5 188 28 23-21 15 0.53
16  ATL 16 0.5 -3.0 24 3.5 6 188 27 26-19 10 0.53
17  POR 15 0.5 -1.0 18 1.5 13 193 17 21-23 19 0.52
18  UTA 18 -0.5 1.0 11 -1.5 18 197 11 23-22 16 0.48
19  PHX 20 -0.5 2.0 9 -2.5 23 199 9 22-22 17 0.47
20  MIN 19 -1.0 2.0 8 -3.0 25 200 8 22-24 18 0.46
21  HOU 21 -1.0 0.0 14 -1.0 19 197 13 24-21 14 0.45
22  GSW 22 -3.0 0.5 12 -3.5 26 199 10 18-24 22 0.39
23  DET 23 -3.0 -3.0 25 0.0 14 192 19 16-29 24 0.38
24  SAC 25 -4.0 2.5 7 -6.5 29 204 1 16-29 25 0.36
25  CLE 24 -4.0 -1.0 17 -3.0 24 197 12 16-26 23 0.36
26  TOR 26 -4.5 -4.0 28 -0.5 15 191 21 15-30 26 0.34
27  NOH 28 -6.0 -7.5 30 1.5 12 186 30 11-1 28 0.29
28  NJN 27 -6.0 -4.0 27 -2.0 21 193 15 15-31 27 0.28
29  WAS 29 -7.0 0.5 13 -7.5 30 203 4 10-1 29 0.26
30  CHA 30 -9.0 -6.5 29 -2.5 22 191 22 7-1 30 0.21

GLOSSARY


  • LstWk - The BTM ranking from last week.
  • GPF - Stands for "Generic Points Favored".  It's what you would expect the team to be favored by against a league average opponent at a neutral site.
  • oGPF - Stands for "Offensive Generic Points Favored".  The component of a team's total GPF attributable to its ability to score points (per game).
  • dGPF - Stands for "Defensive Generic Points Favored".  The component of a team's total GPF attributable to its ability to prevent the other team from scoring points (per game).
  • GOU - Stands for "Generic Over/Under".  It's what you would expect the betting over/under to be for the given team when playing a league average opponent.
  • W-L - The team's win/loss record (and win percentage rank)
  • GWP - Stands for "Generic Win Probability".  I converted the GPF into a win probability using the following formula: 1/(1 + exp(-GPF/6.5)).


  • Additional Key Factors:
    • League Average Points Scored (APS): 97.5 points
    • Home Court Advantage (HCA): 3.25 points
    • Back to Back Penalty (B2B): -0.75 points (see here)
    How to Use This Table to Build Point Spreads and Over/Unders
    • Point Spread (in favor of home team) = HCA  + (B2Bhome - B2Baway) + (GPFhome - GPFaway)
    • Over/Under = 2*APS + (oGPFhome + oGPFaway - dGPFhome - dGPFaway)

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