Saturday, March 17, 2012

NBA Team Rankings - March 17, 2012

Here are the NBA Team Rankings as of March 17, 2012. These rankings use the Vegas point spreads from recent games to derive an implied measure of team strength (Generic Points Favored, or GPF).  By combining the point spread information with the betting over/unders, I can also decompose team strength into its offensive and defensive components (oGPF and dGPF). For more detail, see the Methodology page.

Heat Rises


The Bulls had pulled even to the Heat last week, but with Derrick Rose out once again to injury, the Heat have reestablished their two point lead in the rankings (despite a road loss to the Bulls on Wednesday).


What's Going on with the Knicks?

All the chatter on the Knicks this past week has been on how the wheels were coming off. A six game losing streak.  Head coach Mike D'Antoni resigns.  A possible end to Linsanity. But you wouldn't know it if you look at the betting lines.  The Knicks have been surging, climbing six spots to #7.  This seemed like a good excuse to try out Google's Annotated Timeline feature.  See below for the Knicks' progression this season in terms of Generic Points Favored (GPF).  Note the spike in GPF after Mike D'Antoni's resignation.  We'll see if that persists.





The Rankings:


Rank Team LstWk GPF oGPF dGPF GOU W-L GWP
1  MIA 1 8.5 5.0 4 3.5 7 196 14 32-11 3 0.79
2  CHI 2 6.5 2.0 9 4.5 2 192 20 36-10 1 0.73
3  OKC 3 5.5 6.0 1 -0.5 15 201 5 33-11 2 0.70
4  SAS 4 4.5 5.0 3 -0.5 17 200 7 29-13 4 0.66
5  PHI 6 4.0 -2.5 23 6.5 1 186 29 25-19 11 0.64
6  LAL 5 3.5 -0.5 18 4.0 6 190 24 28-16 6 0.63
7  NYK 13 3.0 5.0 5 -2.0 20 201 6 20-24 20 0.61
8  ORL 8 3.0 -1.0 21 4.0 4 189 25 29-16 5 0.61
9  IND 9 2.5 0.5 15 2.0 10 193 17 25-17 7 0.60
10  LAC 7 2.5 0.0 16 2.5 11 192 18 24-18 9 0.59
11  DEN 11 1.5 5.5 2 -4.0 28 204 1 24-20 14 0.56
12  MEM 10 1.5 -1.0 19 2.5 9 191 21 24-18 8 0.56
13  DAL 12 1.0 -2.0 22 3.0 8 189 26 25-20 12 0.55
14  BOS 15 1.0 -3.5 26 4.5 3 187 27 23-20 15 0.53
15  POR 14 0.5 -0.5 17 1.0 13 193 16 21-23 19 0.52
16  ATL 19 0.0 -4.0 27 4.0 5 187 28 25-19 10 0.50
17  MIL 22 0.0 4.0 6 -4.0 27 202 4 20-24 21 0.50
18  UTA 16 0.0 1.0 11 -1.0 18 197 11 21-22 18 0.50
19  MIN 18 -1.0 2.5 8 -3.5 25 200 8 22-23 17 0.47
20  PHX 21 -1.0 1.5 10 -2.5 22 198 10 22-22 16 0.46
21  HOU 17 -1.0 0.5 14 -1.5 19 197 12 24-20 13 0.46
22  GSW 20 -2.5 1.0 12 -3.5 26 199 9 18-23 22 0.41
23  DET 26 -4.0 -3.0 24 -1.0 16 192 19 16-28 24 0.36
24  CLE 25 -4.0 -1.0 20 -3.0 24 196 13 16-25 23 0.35
25  SAC 23 -4.0 2.5 7 -6.5 29 204 2 15-29 25 0.35
26  TOR 24 -4.5 -4.5 28 0.0 14 190 23 15-29 26 0.33
27  NJN 27 -5.5 -3.5 25 -2.0 21 193 15 15-30 27 0.30
28  NOH 28 -6.0 -7.5 30 1.5 12 185 30 10-34 29 0.28
29  WAS 29 -7.0 0.5 13 -7.5 30 203 3 10-33 28 0.26
30  CHA 30 -9.0 -6.5 29 -2.5 23 191 22 6-36 30 0.20

GLOSSARY




  • LstWk - The BTM ranking from last week.
  • GPF - Stands for "Generic Points Favored".  It's what you would expect the team to be favored by against a league average opponent at a neutral site.
  • oGPF - Stands for "Offensive Generic Points Favored".  The component of a team's total GPF attributable to its ability to score points (per game).
  • dGPF - Stands for "Defensive Generic Points Favored".  The component of a team's total GPF attributable to its ability to prevent the other team from scoring points (per game).
  • GOU - Stands for "Generic Over/Under".  It's what you would expect the betting over/under to be for the given team when playing a league average opponent.
  • W-L - The team's win/loss record (and win percentage rank)
  • GWP - Stands for "Generic Win Probability".  I converted the GPF into a win probability using the following formula: 1/(1 + exp(-GPF/6.5)).


  • Additional Key Factors:
    • League Average Points Scored (APS): 97.5 points
    • Home Court Advantage (HCA): 3.25 points
    • Back to Back Penalty (B2B): -0.75 points (see here)
    How to Use This Table to Build Point Spreads and Over/Unders
    • Point Spread (in favor of home team) = HCA  + (B2Bhome - B2Baway) + (GPFhome - GPFaway)
    • Over/Under = 2*APS + (oGPFhome + oGPFaway - dGPFhome - dGPFaway)

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