Saturday, March 10, 2012

NBA Team Rankings - March 10, 2012


Mexico grizzlies
Mexican Grizzlies at the Field Columbian Museum
Here are the NBA Team Rankings as of March 10, 2012.  These rankings use the Vegas point spreads from recent games to derive an implied measure of team strength (Generic Points Favored, or GPF).  By combining the point spread information with the betting over/unders, I can also decompose team strength into its offensive and defensive components (oGPF and dGPF). For more detail, see the Methodology page.


The Heat, Bulls, and Thunder still occupy the top three spots, as they have all year.  But the Heat and Bulls are now in a virtual, um, heat for first place, with the Thunder trailing by three points (a significant margin for these rankings).


Here is how the Bulls and Heat have progressed throughout the season:


After moving in lockstep for most of the season, the Heat started pulling away in early February, and the Bulls started sliding (most likely due to Derrick Rose's five game absence due to injury).  Now with Rose back in the lineup, the Bulls are on the rise and the Heat have started slipping (with Chris Bosh's three game absence in early March a contributing factor). 


The Grizzlies have cracked the top ten for the first time, having won five straight and ten of their last twelve.  Follow their progress on The Ticker.


The Rankings (glossary below):


Rank Team LstWk GPF oGPF dGPF GOU W-L GWP
1  MIA 1 7.5 5.5 3 2.0 9 196 9 30-9 3 0.77
2  CHI 3 7.5 2.0 7 5.5 2 190 21 33-9 1 0.76
3  OKC 2 4.5 6.0 2 -1.5 19 200 5 31-9 2 0.67
4  SAS 6 3.5 3.0 5 0.5 14 196 10 26-13 4 0.64
5  LAL 7 3.5 -0.5 19 4.0 5 188 23 24-16 9 0.63
6  PHI 8 3.5 -2.5 23 6.0 1 184 29 24-17 10 0.63
7  LAC 4 3.0 2.0 9 1.0 12 194 14 23-15 8 0.62
8  ORL 5 3.0 -1.0 20 4.0 6 188 25 26-15 5 0.62
9  IND 10 2.5 1.0 12 1.5 10 192 17 23-14 6 0.60
10  MEM 13 2.5 -0.5 18 3.0 8 190 22 23-15 7 0.60
11  DEN 14 2.5 7.0 1 -4.5 27 204 1 23-18 12 0.60
12  DAL 9 2.0 -2.5 22 4.5 7 187 26 23-19 13 0.57
13  NYK 12 1.0 4.5 4 -3.5 25 201 3 18-22 20 0.54
14  POR 11 0.5 0.0 17 0.5 13 193 16 19-21 18 0.53
15  BOS 16 0.5 -4.0 26 4.5 4 185 27 21-18 14 0.52
16  UTA 18 0.0 1.0 13 -1.0 18 195 12 19-20 17 0.50
17  HOU 19 0.0 0.5 14 -0.5 17 195 13 21-19 15 0.50
18  MIN 15 -0.5 2.0 8 -2.5 23 198 7 21-20 16 0.49
19  ATL 20 -0.5 -5.0 28 4.5 3 183 30 23-17 11 0.48
20  GSW 23 -1.0 1.5 11 -2.5 24 198 8 15-21 21 0.46
21  PHX 17 -2.0 0.0 16 -2.0 21 195 11 18-21 19 0.43
22  MIL 21 -2.5 2.0 10 -4.5 28 200 6 16-24 22 0.40
23  SAC 22 -2.5 3.0 6 -5.5 29 202 2 14-26 25 0.40
24  TOR 25 -4.0 -4.5 27 0.5 15 188 24 13-26 27 0.35
25  CLE 29 -4.0 -1.5 21 -2.5 22 194 15 15-23 23 0.35
26  DET 27 -4.0 -3.5 25 -0.5 16 190 20 14-26 24 0.34
27  NJN 24 -5.0 -3.0 24 -2.0 20 192 18 14-27 26 0.32
28  NOH 26 -5.5 -7.0 30 1.5 11 184 28 9-1 29 0.30
29  WAS 28 -7.0 0.0 15 -7.0 30 201 4 9-29 28 0.25
30  CHA 30 -9.5 -5.5 29 -4.0 26 191 19 5-1 30 0.19


GLOSSARY

  • LstWk - The BTM ranking from last week.
  • GPF - Stands for "Generic Points Favored".  It's what you would expect the team to be favored by against a league average opponent at a neutral site.
  • oGPF - Stands for "Offensive Generic Points Favored".  The component of a team's total GPF attributable to its ability to score points (per game).
  • dGPF - Stands for "Defensive Generic Points Favored".  The component of a team's total GPF attributable to its ability to prevent the other team from scoring points (per game).
  • GOU - Stands for "Generic Over/Under".  It's what you would expect the betting over/under to be for the given team when playing a league average opponent.
  • W-L - The team's win/loss record (and win percentage rank)
  • GWP - Stands for "Generic Win Probability".  I converted the GPF into a win probability using the following formula: 1/(1 + exp(-GPF/6.5)).


  • Additional Key Factors:
    • League Average Points Scored (APS): 96.5 points
    • Home Court Advantage (HCA): 3.25 points
    • Back to Back Penalty (B2B): -0.75 points (see here)
    How to Use This Table to Build Point Spreads and Over/Unders
    • Point Spread (in favor of home team) = HCA  + (B2Bhome - B2Baway) + (GPFhome - GPFaway)
    • Over/Under = 2*APS + (oGPFhome + oGPFaway - dGPFhome - dGPFaway)

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