Monday, March 12, 2012

College Basketball Team Rankings - March 12, 2012

Here are the College Basketball Team Rankings as of March 12, 2012. These rankings use the Vegas point spreads to derive an implied team by team ranking. My original post of the rankings has more detail on the methodology.

Tournament Edition

I have included the top 64 teams (according to these rankings), plus any team that made the NCAA tournament. (ETA on March 14 - Check here for a post on tournament brackets)

The Snubs

At #29, UCLA was the biggest "snub", but if you look down the list, the top 3 "snubs" are all Pac-12 teams, which leads me to believe that these rankings may have just overvalued the Pac-12.  I still think the truth lies somewhere in the middle, and wouldn't be suprised if Cal (one of only two Pac-12 teams in the tournament) found itself in the Sweet Sixteen.


The Betting Market Bracket

I went ahead and filled out a bracket based on the rankings below.  You can find it here.  Unfortunately, it's a fairly boring bracket, with few "seed" upsets predicted. Time permitting, I plan on providing a "riskier" bracket that targets optimal upsets (e.g. if the expected line is less than 2 points, pick the lower seeded team, even if they are the underdog).

The Rankings (glossary below)
Other Rankings
Rank Team Seed LstWk GPF Conf SOS GWP KP AP Coach
1 Kentucky 1 1 19.0 SEC 1 4.0 55 0.96 1 1 1
2 Ohio St. 2 3 18.0 B10 1 7.0 5 0.95 2 7 7
3 Kansas 2 4 17.5 B12 1 6.0 19 0.95 4 6 6
4 Michigan St. 1 5 17.0 B10 2 6.5 6 0.95 3 5 4
5 Syracuse 1 6 16.5 BE 1 4.0 52 0.94 7 2 2
6 North Carolina 1 2 16.0 ACC 1 4.0 57 0.93 5 4 5
7 Missouri 2 7 15.5 B12 2 5.0 44 0.93 8 3 3
8 Wisconsin 4 8 14.0 B10 3 6.0 18 0.91 6 14 13
9 Wichita St. 5 9 13.0 MVC 1 2.0 89 0.90 10 18 19
10 Marquette 3 12 12.5 BE 2 5.5 36 0.89 18 11 11
11 Memphis 8 16 12.5 CUSA 1 3.0 66 0.89 9
12 Florida 7 23 12.5 SEC 2 6.5 14 0.89 19 25 21
13 Baylor 3 24 12.5 B12 3 8.0 1 0.89 14 9 10
14 Georgetown 3 20 12.0 BE 3 6.5 12 0.88 12 15 15
15 Vanderbilt 5 13 12.0 SEC 3 6.5 13 0.88 16 20 24
16 Duke 2 15 12.0 ACC 2 5.0 38 0.88 17 8 8
17 Louisville 4 11 12.0 BE 4 6.5 10 0.88 20 17 18
18 New Mexico 5 19 11.5 MWC 1 1.0 110 0.87 13 21 22
19 Indiana 4 18 11.5 B10 4 6.5 7 0.87 11 16 17
20 Michigan 4 22 10.5 B10 5 7.0 3 0.85 25 13 14
21 Purdue 10 31 10.0 B10 6 6.0 21 0.84 24
22 UNLV 6 21 10.0 MWC 2 2.0 94 0.84 33 23 25
23 Florida St. 3 27 10.0 ACC 3 5.0 39 0.84 21 10 12
24 Kansas St. 8 14 10.0 B12 4 5.5 28 0.84 22
25 Iowa St. 8 39 10.0 B12 5 5.0 43 0.84 30
26 Gonzaga 7 10 9.5 WCC 1 1.5 109 0.83 32
27 West Virginia 10 32 9.5 BE 5 6.0 23 0.83 42
28 Cincinnati 6 28 9.5 BE 6 5.5 26 0.83 31
29 UCLA 33 9.5 P12 1 2.0 84 0.83 48
30 California 12 17 9.5 P12 2 2.5 74 0.82 28
31 St. Mary's 7 29 9.0 WCC 2 0.5 125 0.82 43 24 16
32 Saint Louis 9 30 9.0 A10 1 2.0 93 0.82 15
33 Virginia 10 25 9.0 ACC 4 4.5 45 0.81 26
34 Alabama 9 37 8.5 SEC 4 5.5 34 0.81 29
35 Belmont 14 8.5 ASun 1 5.0 40 0.81 23
36 Washington 42 8.5 P12 3 3.0 68 0.80 67
37 North Carolina St. 11 48 8.5 ACC 5 4.0 56 0.80 44
38 BYU 14 38 8.0 WCC 3 0.5 123 0.80 50
39 Connecticut 9 34 8.0 BE 7 6.5 11 0.79 35
40 Temple 5 35 8.0 A10 2 1.5 103 0.78 36
41 Notre Dame 7 43 7.5 BE 8 6.5 9 0.78 40
42 Texas 11 26 7.5 B12 6 7.0 4 0.78 27
43 Arizona 40 7.5 P12 4 3.0 72 0.78 49
44 Long Beach St. 12 41 7.5 BW 1 0.0 130 0.78 37
45 Seton Hall 58 7.5 BE 9 5.0 42 0.77 47
46 Illinois 47 7.0 B10 7 6.0 16 0.77 69
47 Creighton 8 36 7.0 MVC 2 2.5 81 0.77 34 19 20
48 South Florida 12 59 7.0 BE 10 4.5 46 0.76 66
49 Clemson 55 6.5 ACC 6 2.0 83 0.75 70
50 VA Commonwealth 12 44 6.5 CAA 1 -1.5 164 0.75 46
51 Oregon 53 6.5 P12 5 3.0 71 0.75 62
52 Tennessee 56 6.5 SEC 5 3.5 65 0.75 60
53 San Diego St. 6 51 6.5 MWC 3 2.5 73 0.74 52 22 23
54 Murray St. 6 65 6.5 OVC 1 -4.5 252 0.74 45 12 9
55 Northwestern 46 6.0 B10 8 6.5 8 0.74 58
56 Iona 14 54 6.0 MAAC 1 -3.0 230 0.74 57
57 Harvard 12 52 6.0 Ivy 1 -2.5 197 0.73 39
58 Pittsburgh 49 6.0 BE 11 5.5 29 0.73 77
59 Miami Florida 60 6.0 ACC 7 3.5 64 0.73 38
60 St. Joseph's PA 69 5.5 A10 3 2.0 88 0.72 65
61 Colorado 11 73 5.5 P12 6 3.5 60 0.72 75
62 Mississippi St. 50 5.5 SEC 6 2.0 86 0.71 85
63 Stanford 57 5.5 P12 7 2.5 76 0.71 53
64 New Mexico St. 13 68 5.5 WAC 1 0.0 138 0.71 63
68 Xavier 10 63 5.0 A10 4 4.0 58 0.70 59
69 South Dakota St. 14 75 5.0 Sum 1 -2.0 177 0.69 55
70 Montana 13 89 4.5 BSky 1 -4.0 243 0.68 94
71 Southern Miss 9 72 4.5 CUSA 2 1.5 101 0.68 71
72 Ohio 13 70 4.5 MAC 2 -1.5 165 0.67 72
73 Davidson 13 66 4.5 SC 1 -3.5 238 0.67 68
87 St. Bonaventure 14 74 3.5 A10 7 0.5 122 0.64 51
98 Colorado St. 11 82 3.0 MWC 5 3.0 69 0.61 76
104 Detroit 15 109 2.5 Horz 3 -0.5 148 0.59 115
124 Loyola Maryland 15 128 0.5 MAAC 3 -3.0 221 0.53 128
137 Lamar 16 -0.5 Slnd 3 -100.0 282 0.49 102
140 NC Asheville 16 148 -0.5 BSth 1 3.5 63 0.48 121
141 Lehigh 15 115 -0.5 Pat 2 1.0 116 0.47 86
185 Western Kentucky 16 172 -4.0 SB 7 -2.0 188 0.35 189
212 Norfolk St. 15 -6.0 MEAC 2 -1.0 152 0.27 213
228 Miss Valley St. 16 -8.0 SWAC 1 -2.0 180 0.21 258

Glossary

  • Seed - The team's seed in the NCAA tournament (if applicable)
  • LstWk - The team's ranking from the prior week
  • GPF - Stands for "Generic Points Favored".  It's what you'd expect the team to be favored by against a Div-I average opponent at a neutral site.
  • Conf - The conference the team plays in and their GPF rank within that conference
  • SOS - Stands for "Strength of Schedule".  It's the average GPF of the teams faced thus far this season (along with the corresponding rank).
  • GWP - Stands for "Generic Win Probability".  I converted the GPF into a win probability using the following formula: GWP = 1/(1+exp(-GPF/6))
  • KenPom - The team's rank according to kenpom.com.  The best college basketball stats site you're going to find.
  • AP - The team's rank (if it exists) according to the AP Top 25 poll.
  • Coaches - The team's rank (if it exists) according to the ESPN/USA Today Coaches poll.

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