Thursday, February 9, 2012

NBA Team Rankings - February 9, 2012


Richard Moll mugs for the camera at the Governor's Ball held immediately after the 39th Annual Emmy Awards
Richard Moll ('Bull')
Here are the NBA Betting Market Power Rankings for February 9, 2012.  These rankings use point spreads and over/unders from the past three weeks to derive an implied estimate of team strength.  More at the Methodology page.


Summary


The top 3 reshuffled again, with the Bulls now on top with a Generic Points Favored of 7.0 points.  This is my fifth week of doing the rankings, and the top 3 each week has been the Bulls, Heat, and Thunder.


Dallas and Portland are interesting cases.  Dallas is ranked fourth, despite a 12th ranked Win/Loss record of 15-11.  It appears that the market expects the Mavericks to improve, now that Dirk Nowitski has returned from injury (despite the fact that they have gone 3-3 since he's been back).


The Trailblazers appear to be a victim of bad luck.  According to the Simple Rating System at Basketball-Reference, which factors in margin of victory and strength of schedule, Portland is ranked 5th, despite their mediocre 14-12 Win/Loss record.  The Betting Market appears to be taking this into account as well.


The Bobcats (and Generalissimo Francisco Franco) are still dead.


The Rankings (glossary below):


Rank Team LstWk GPF oGPF dGPF GOU W-L GWP
1  CHI 3 7.0 2.5 7 4.5 2 187 19 22-6 2 0.75
2  MIA 2 6.5 6.0 3 0.5 13 196 4 19-7 3 0.73
3  OKC 1 6.5 7.5 2 -1.0 16 199 2 20-5 1 0.73
4  DAL 7 4.5 0.5 14 4.0 5 187 20 15-11 12 0.66
5  POR 5 4.0 1.5 11 2.5 8 189 18 14-12 16 0.65
6  SAS 11 4.0 1.5 9 2.5 10 189 17 18-9 6 0.65
7  LAC 12 3.0 4.5 5 -1.5 18 195 5 15-8 8 0.62
8  DEN 4 3.0 7.5 1 -4.5 28 202 1 15-11 13 0.62
9  LAL 6 3.0 -1.5 19 4.5 4 184 25 14-11 14 0.61
10  IND 10 3.0 1.5 10 1.5 12 190 16 17-8 5 0.60
11  PHI 8 2.5 -2.0 23 4.5 3 184 27 18-8 4 0.60
12  MEM 13 1.5 -2.0 22 3.5 6 185 24 13-13 18 0.56
13  BOS 17 1.5 -4.0 26 5.5 1 180 30 14-10 10 0.56
14  ATL 9 1.5 -1.0 18 2.5 9 186 21 17-9 7 0.55
15  HOU 14 1.0 3.0 6 -2.0 22 195 6 15-11 11 0.53
16  GSW 20 1.0 4.5 4 -3.5 27 198 3 8-14 23 0.53
17  ORL 15 1.0 -2.0 25 3.0 7 185 23 16-10 9 0.53
18  MIN 16 0.0 2.0 8 -2.0 21 194 7 13-13 17 0.50
19  UTA 18 0.0 1.0 12 -1.0 17 192 11 13-11 15 0.49
20  MIL 21 -1.0 0.0 16 -1.0 19 191 14 11-14 19 0.46
21  NYK 19 -1.5 0.5 15 -2.0 20 192 12 11-15 21 0.45
22  PHX 22 -2.5 0.5 13 -3.0 26 193 8 11-14 20 0.40
23  SAC 24 -3.0 -0.5 17 -2.5 23 192 13 9-16 24 0.39
24  CLE 25 -4.0 -1.5 20 -2.5 24 191 15 10-14 22 0.35
25  NOH 23 -5.0 -6.5 28 1.5 11 182 29 4-22 29 0.31
26  NJN 26 -6.0 -1.5 21 -4.5 29 193 10 8-19 25 0.28
27  TOR 27 -6.5 -6.0 27 -0.5 14 184 26 8-19 26 0.28
28  WAS 28 -7.0 -2.0 24 -5.0 30 193 9 5-21 28 0.25
29  DET 29 -7.0 -7.0 29 0.0 15 183 28 7-20 27 0.25
30  CHA 30 -10.0 -7.0 30 -3.0 25 185 22 3-22 30 0.18

GLOSSARY



  • LstWk - The BTM ranking from last week.
  • GPF - Stands for "Generic Points Favored".  It's what you would expect the team to be favored by against a league average opponent at a neutral site.
  • oGPF - Stands for "Offensive Generic Points Favored".  The component of a team's total GPF attributable to its ability to score points (per game).
  • dGPF - Stands for "Defensive Generic Points Favored".  The component of a team's total GPF attributable to its ability to prevent the other team from scoring points (per game).
  • GOU - Stands for "Generic Over/Under".  It's what you would expect the betting over/under to be for the given team when playing a league average opponent.
  • W-L - The team's win/loss record (and win percentage rank)
  • GWP - Stands for "Generic Win Probability".  I converted the GPF into a win probability using the following formula: 1/(1 + exp(-GPF/6.5)).

  • Additional Key Factors:
    • League Average Points Scored (APS): 95.0 points
    • Home Court Advantage (HCA): 3.5 points
    How to Use This Table to Build Point Spreads and Over/Unders
    • Point Spread (in favor of home team) = HCA + (GPFhome - GPFaway)
    • Over/Under = 2*APS + (oGPFhome + oGPFaway - dGPFhome - dGPFaway)

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