Thursday, February 2, 2012

NBA Team Rankings - February 2, 2012


Dwight howard 2009z
Here are the NBA Betting Market Power Rankings for February 2, 2012.  These rankings use point spreads and over/unders from the past three weeks to derive an implied estimate of team strength.  More at the Methodology page.


Summary


There was no movement among the top 4 this week, with the Thunder clinging to the top spot by a half point over the Heat.  


Orlando and (soon-to-be-traded?) Dwight Howard, on the other hand, are in free fall.  A week ago, the Magic were ranked 5th with a GPF (Generic Points Favored) of 4.5.  They have since dropped 10 spots to 15th and lost 3.5 points of GPF.  Using the GWP (Generic Win Probability) column, the Magic went from being a team expected to win 67% of its games, to a team expected to win only 54% of the time.



The Bobcats are another team on a downward trajectory.  Last week, they took over the bottom spot from the Wizards.  They spent this week putting some distance between themselves and the rest of the league.  The nicest thing I can say about them at this point is that they're not quite as bad as their record.  They have won 15% of their games, but their GWP expects them to be an 18% team.


The Rankings (glossary below):


Rank Team LstWk GPF oGPF dGPF GOU W-L GWP
1  OKC 1 6.5 7.0 2 -0.5 16 196 2 17-4 1 0.73
2  MIA 2 6.0 6.5 3 -0.5 17 196 3 16-6 5 0.72
3  CHI 3 5.5 1.5 11 4.0 3 186 21 18-6 2 0.70
4  DEN 4 5.0 9.5 1 -4.5 30 203 1 14-7 8 0.68
5  POR 7 3.5 1.0 13 2.5 8 187 18 13-9 14 0.64
6  LAL 8 3.5 -1.0 21 4.5 2 183 26 13-9 12 0.63
7  DAL 10 3.0 -1.0 18 4.0 5 184 23 14-9 10 0.62
8  PHI 6 3.0 -1.0 20 4.0 4 184 24 16-6 4 0.61
9  ATL 13 3.0 0.0 15 3.0 7 186 20 16-6 3 0.61
10  IND 11 3.0 1.5 10 1.5 11 189 16 15-6 6 0.61
11  SAS 9 2.5 2.0 8 0.5 13 191 14 14-9 9 0.60
12  LAC 17 2.5 3.5 4 -1.0 18 193 8 13-6 7 0.59
13  MEM 12 2.0 -0.5 16 2.5 9 186 22 11-10 16 0.57
14  HOU 16 1.5 3.0 5 -1.5 20 193 7 12-10 15 0.55
15  ORL 5 1.0 -2.0 25 3.0 6 184 25 13-9 13 0.54
16  MIN 19 0.5 2.5 6 -2.0 22 193 6 10-12 19 0.53
17  BOS 18 0.0 -5.5 26 5.5 1 178 30 11-10 17 0.50
18  UTA 14 0.0 1.5 9 -1.5 21 192 10 12-8 11 0.49
19  NYK 15 -0.5 1.0 12 -1.5 19 191 13 8-13 21 0.49
20  GSW 21 -0.5 2.5 7 -3.0 23 194 4 7-12 23 0.48
21  MIL 20 -1.0 -0.5 17 -0.5 15 188 17 10-11 18 0.47
22  PHX 22 -3.0 0.5 14 -3.5 27 193 5 8-13 22 0.39
23  NOH 24 -4.0 -6.5 28 2.5 10 181 29 4-18 27 0.34
24  SAC 28 -4.5 -1.0 19 -3.5 28 192 11 6-15 26 0.33
25  CLE 25 -5.0 -1.5 23 -3.5 24 191 15 8-12 20 0.32
26  NJN 23 -5.0 -1.5 22 -3.5 25 191 12 8-15 24 0.32
27  TOR 26 -6.0 -6.5 29 0.5 12 182 28 7-16 25 0.29
28  WAS 29 -6.0 -1.5 24 -4.5 29 192 9 4-18 28 0.28
29  DET 27 -6.5 -6.5 30 0.0 14 183 27 4-20 29 0.27
30  CHA 30 -10.0 -6.0 27 -4.0 26 187 19 3-20 30 0.18


GLOSSARY


  • LstWk - The BTM ranking from last week.

  • GPF - Stands for "Generic Points Favored".  It's what you would expect the team to be favored by against a league average opponent at a neutral site.

  • oGPF - Stands for "Offensive Generic Points Favored".  The component of a team's total GPF attributable to its ability to score points (per game).

  • dGPF - Stands for "Defensive Generic Points Favored".  The component of a team's total GPF attributable to its ability to prevent the other team from scoring points (per game).

  • GOU - Stands for "Generic Over/Under".  It's what you would expect the betting over/under to be for the given team when playing a league average opponent.

  • W-L - The team's win/loss record (and win percentage rank)

  • GWP - Stands for "Generic Win Probability".  I converted the GPF into a win probability using the following formula: 1/(1 + exp(-GPF/6.5)).



  • Additional Key Factors:
    • League Average Points Scored (APS): 94.5 points
    • Home Court Advantage (HCA): 3.5 points
    How to Use This Table to Build Point Spreads and Over/Unders
    • Point Spread (in favor of home team) = HCA + (GPFhome - GPFaway)
    • Over/Under = 2*APS + (oGPFhome + oGPFaway - dGPFhome - dGPFaway)

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