Monday, February 20, 2012

College Basketball Team Rankings - February 20, 2012

Here are the College Basketball Betting Market Team Rankings as of February 20, 2012.  These rankings use the Vegas point spreads to derive an implied team by team ranking.  My original post of the rankings has more detail on the methodology.


Despite losing on the road to Michigan on Saturday, Ohio State was able to reclaim its spot at the top of these rankings.  Most of the "subjective" rankings have Michigan State as the best team in the Big Ten at this point, and some even have the other Michigan ranked above them as well.



Vanderbilt had a good week, moving up from #29 to #16, although I'm not sure I believe that ranking, as it was a result of games played against pretty mediocre competition (Ole Miss and Georgia).  But then again, both victories were on the road, and convincing (especially against Ole Miss).  This all makes this Saturday's Vanderbilt-Florida matchup interesting.  Florida is ranked #12 in the AP poll right now, while Vanderbilt is currently unranked.  But since the game will be played at Vanderbilt, according to these rankings they should be favored over Florida, by about 2 points (11.5 GPF - 13.5 GPF + 4 point home court advantage).


Murray State is now a legitimate top 64 team according to these rankings (#57, identical to kenpom).  But they're still nowhere near the AP and Coaches poll rankings of #14 and #12, respectively.


Time permitting, I hope to make a separate post on what this past weekend's games point spreads told us about inter-conference strength, as there were about 50 games played between conferences, after about a month and a half of nearly all intra-conference games.


The Rankings (glossary below)
Other Rankings
Rank Team LstWk GPF Conf SOS GWP KenPom AP Coaches
1 Ohio St. 2 19.0 B10 1 7.0 4 0.96 2 8 9
2 Kentucky 1 18.5 SEC 1 3.0 63 0.95 1 1 1
3 Syracuse 3 17.0 BE 1 3.5 51 0.94 5 2 2
4 Kansas 4 17.0 B12 1 6.0 12 0.94 4 4 5
5 Michigan St. 7 16.5 B10 2 6.5 9 0.94 3 6 6
6 North Carolina 5 15.0 ACC 1 4.0 47 0.92 7 7 7
7 Missouri 6 15.0 B12 2 4.5 40 0.92 8 3 3
8 Duke 8 14.5 ACC 2 5.0 31 0.92 13 5 4
9 Florida 10 13.5 SEC 2 5.0 26 0.90 14 12 11
10 New Mexico 14 12.5 MWC 1 1.0 106 0.89 9 18 21
11 Wichita St. 9 12.0 MVC 1 2.5 79 0.88 10 19 19
12 Baylor 15 12.0 B12 3 8.0 1 0.88 17 13 14
13 Wisconsin 11 12.0 B10 3 7.0 6 0.88 6 16 15
14 Georgetown 20 12.0 BE 2 5.5 24 0.88 12 9 8
15 California 16 12.0 P12 1 3.0 69 0.88 18
16 Vanderbilt 29 11.5 SEC 3 5.5 25 0.87 24
17 Marquette 13 11.5 BE 3 5.0 28 0.87 16 10 10
18 Louisville 21 11.5 BE 4 5.0 33 0.87 25 17 17
19 Indiana 18 11.0 B10 4 7.5 2 0.87 15 23 24
20 UNLV 12 11.0 MWC 2 2.5 73 0.86 29 21 20
21 Michigan 19 10.5 B10 5 7.5 3 0.85 23 11 13
22 West Virginia 26 10.0 BE 5 5.5 19 0.85 36
23 Texas 27 10.0 B12 4 6.5 7 0.84 22
24 Connecticut 25 10.0 BE 6 6.0 13 0.84 39
25 Saint Louis 17 10.0 A10 1 1.0 107 0.84 11
26 Florida St. 24 10.0 ACC 3 4.0 45 0.84 21 15 16
27 BYU 32 9.5 WCC 1 0.0 135 0.83 32
28 Gonzaga 22 9.5 WCC 2 0.5 113 0.83 33
29 Notre Dame 52 9.0 BE 7 6.0 11 0.82 38 20 18
30 UCLA 23 9.0 P12 2 2.5 77 0.82 54
31 Memphis 41 9.0 CUSA 1 3.0 60 0.82 19
32 Kansas St. 33 8.5 B12 5 5.0 32 0.81 26
33 Temple 57 8.5 A10 2 1.5 93 0.81 31 22 22
34 Long Beach St. 40 8.5 BW 1 0.5 112 0.80 44
35 Illinois 36 8.5 B10 6 6.0 15 0.80 63
36 Creighton 30 8.5 MVC 2 2.0 82 0.80 37
37 Virginia 38 8.5 ACC 4 3.0 59 0.80 20 25
38 Cincinnati 34 7.5 BE 8 4.0 43 0.78 40
39 Arizona 54 7.5 P12 3 3.0 64 0.78 41
40 Purdue 28 7.5 B10 7 5.5 21 0.77 35
41 Northwestern 48 7.0 B10 8 7.0 5 0.76 50
42 Clemson 58 7.0 ACC 5 2.0 91 0.76 76
43 Pittsburgh 35 7.0 BE 9 5.5 20 0.76 97
44 Iowa St. 50 7.0 B12 6 4.0 42 0.76 34
45 Washington 43 7.0 P12 4 3.5 54 0.76 65
46 Mississippi St. 56 7.0 SEC 4 1.0 105 0.76 81
47 VA Commonwealth 55 7.0 CAA 1 -2.0 181 0.76 43
48 Minnesota 39 6.5 B10 9 4.0 44 0.75 51
49 Iona 59 6.5 MAAC 1 -3.5 229 0.75 52
50 North Carolina St. 46 6.5 ACC 6 3.0 68 0.75 55
51 Alabama 31 6.5 SEC 5 5.5 18 0.74 28
52 Stanford 44 6.5 P12 5 2.5 72 0.74 61
53 Southern Miss 51 6.5 CUSA 2 1.0 104 0.74 53
54 San Diego St. 53 6.0 MWC 3 2.5 71 0.73 60 24 25
55 Tennessee 69 6.0 SEC 6 3.5 52 0.73 73
56 Oregon St. 47 6.0 P12 6 2.5 74 0.73 89
57 Murray St. 95 6.0 OVC 1 -5.0 248 0.73 57 14 12
58 Harvard 42 6.0 Ivy 1 -3.0 212 0.73 30
59 Seton Hall 45 6.0 BE 10 4.5 38 0.72 46
60 St. Mary's 37 6.0 WCC 3 0.5 115 0.72 48 23
61 Oregon 71 5.5 P12 7 3.5 55 0.71 67
62 Colorado 66 5.5 P12 8 2.5 75 0.71 79
63 Xavier 63 5.0 A10 3 3.0 61 0.70 58
64 Cleveland St. 70 5.0 Horz 1 -1.5 167 0.70 86

Glossary

  • LstWk - The team's ranking from the prior week
  • GPF - Stands for "Generic Points Favored".  It's what you'd expect the team to be favored by against a Div-I average opponent at a neutral site.
  • Conf - The conference the team plays in and their GPF rank within that conference
  • SOS - Stands for "Strength of Schedule".  It's the average GPF of the teams faced thus far this season (along with the corresponding rank).
  • GWP - Stands for "Generic Win Probability".  I converted the GPF into a win probability using the following formula: GWP = 1/(1+exp(-GPF/6))
  • KenPom - The team's rank according to kenpom.com.  The best college basketball stats site you're going to find.
  • AP - The team's rank (if it exists) according to the AP Top 25 poll.
  • Coaches - The team's rank (if it exists) according to the ESPN/USA Today Coaches poll.

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