Friday, January 27, 2012

NBA Team Rankings - January 26, 2012


Here are the Betting Market Power Rankings for January 26, 2012.


These rankings look at the betting lines over the past three weeks and derive an implied power ranking (GPF).  With the added information of the over/unders, I'm also able to decompose a team's ranking into offense (oGPF) and defense (dGPF).  For more background, see the Methodology page.


I've restructured the table a bit in an attempt to provide greater clarity on the metrics I'm reporting.  Ranks have been added for the oGPF, dGPF, and GOU columns.  I also added Win/Loss record.


The Thunder have worked their way into the top spot this week, with an 0.5 point advantage over the previous number 1, the Heat.  The big mover this week was the Nuggets, who are now at number 4 (up five spots).  They are also the clear number one in GOU (Generic Over/Under).  At 204 points, that's a full 8 points above the number 2 team, the Heat.  The Mavericks reversed their gains from last week, dropping back down to 10th (likely driven by Dirk Nowitzki's absence).



Despite their mediocre win/loss record, which would put them at 14th and 15th best in the league, the Trailblazers and Lakers are ranked much higher in the eyes of the betting market (7th and 8th).  Conversely, the market doesn't seem convinced just yet that the Pacers and the Hawks are as good as their record says they are.


The Rankings: (glossary below)



Rank Team LstWk GPF oGPF dGPF GOU W-L GWP
1  OKC 2 6.5 5.5 3 1.0 14 194 4 15-3 1 0.73
2  MIA 1 6.0 6.5 2 -0.5 17 196 2 13-5 3 0.72
3  CHI 3 5.5 0.5 15 5.0 1 184 24 16-4 2 0.70
4  DEN 9 4.5 9.5 1 -5.0 29 204 1 13-5 4 0.67
5  ORL 7 4.5 1.0 12 3.5 5 186 21 12-5 5 0.67
6  PHI 4 3.5 1.5 9 2.0 8 188 18 12-6 8 0.64
7  POR 8 3.0 1.0 11 2.0 10 189 17 11-8 14 0.61
8  LAL 6 2.5 -1.5 22 4.0 4 184 26 11-8 15 0.60
9  SAS 10 2.5 3.0 5 -0.5 16 192 8 12-7 9 0.60
10  DAL 5 2.5 -1.5 23 4.0 3 183 27 11-8 13 0.60
11  IND 11 2.0 0.0 17 2.0 9 187 20 12-5 6 0.58
12  MEM 14 1.5 0.5 16 1.0 11 188 19 10-7 12 0.56
13  ATL 12 1.5 -1.5 21 3.0 6 185 23 13-6 7 0.56
14  UTA 16 1.0 1.5 7 -0.5 18 191 12 10-6 10 0.54
15  NYK 17 0.5 2.0 6 -1.5 20 193 7 7-11 21 0.53
16  HOU 18 0.5 3.0 4 -2.5 23 194 3 10-8 16 0.52
17  LAC 15 0.5 1.5 10 -1.0 19 192 11 9-6 11 0.51
18  BOS 13 0.5 -5.0 27 5.5 2 179 30 7-9 18 0.51
19  MIN 19 -1.0 0.5 13 -1.5 21 191 13 8-10 17 0.46
20  MIL 21 -1.0 -2.0 24 1.0 12 186 22 7-10 19 0.46
21  GSW 22 -1.5 1.5 8 -3.0 25 194 5 6-11 22 0.44
22  PHX 20 -2.0 0.5 14 -2.5 22 192 9 6-11 23 0.43
23  NJN 24 -4.0 -1.0 19 -3.0 24 191 15 6-13 24 0.35
24  NOH 26 -4.5 -7.0 30 2.5 7 179 29 3-15 28 0.34
25  CLE 23 -5.0 -1.0 20 -4.0 27 192 10 7-10 20 0.32
26  TOR 25 -5.0 -5.0 28 0.0 15 184 25 6-13 25 0.31
27  DET 27 -5.5 -6.5 29 1.0 13 182 28 4-15 27 0.30
28  SAC 28 -6.0 -1.0 18 -5.0 30 193 6 6-13 26 0.28
29  WAS 30 -6.5 -2.0 25 -4.5 28 191 14 3-15 29 0.28
30  CHA 29 -7.5 -4.0 26 -3.5 26 189 16 3-16 30 0.24
Glossary





  • lstwk - The BTM ranking from last week.

  • GPF - Stands for "Generic Points Favored".  It's what you would expect the team to be favored by against a league average opponent at a neutral site.

  • oGPF - Stands for "Offensive Generic Points Favored".  The component of a team's total GPF attributable to its ability to score points (per game).

  • dGPF - Stands for "Defensive Generic Points Favored".  The component of a team's total GPF attributable to its ability to prevent the other team from scoring points (per game).

  • GOU - Stands for "Generic Over/Under".  It's what you would expect the betting over/under to be for the given team when playing a league average opponent.

  • W-L - The team's win/loss record (and win percentage rank)

  • GWP - Stands for "Generic Win Probability".  I converted the GPF into a win probability using the following formula: 1/(1 + exp(-GPF/6.5)).


  • Additional Key Factors:
    • League Average Points Scored (APS): 94.5 points
    • Home Court Advantage (HCA): 3.5 points

    How to Use This Table to Build Point Spreads and Over/Unders

    • Point Spread (in favor of home team) = HCA + (GPFhome - GPFaway)
    • Over/Under = 2*APS + (oGPFhome + oGPFaway - dGPFhome - dGPFaway)

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